Analyses by Chinese think tanks and intelligence circles, based on the geopolitical developments of May 2026, show that Beijing views the visit of the president of the United States Donald Trump to China with particular caution but also with raw pragmatism. According to these assessments, the visit - which concluded today - is not considered the beginning of a new strategic cooperation, but a temporary effort to manage the crisis in Washington–Beijing relations, without resolving the deep conflicts surrounding trade, technology, and Taiwan.
Beijing views a "truce", not an alliance
Circles close to the Chinese leadership consider the summit between Xi Jinping and Trump to have been more of a political truce than a genuine strategic alignment. The Chinese side assesses that the visit gives Trump a strong image of an international leader, useful for his domestic political audience in the United States. At the same time, Beijing seeks stability in trade relations with Washington and a prolongation of the technological "armistice" between the two superpowers. According to Chinese analyses, Trump is considered highly negotiable because he focuses primarily on immediate economic benefits — trade agreements, aircraft sales, and energy deals — and less on issues of human rights or ideological confrontation.
Beijing's fears over the "unpredictable" Trump personality
Despite the disposition for understanding, Chinese intelligence services express intense concern over the unpredictable behavior of Trump. Internal reports warn that today's friendly atmosphere can transform again very quickly into open confrontation, particularly if Trump feels that he is not treated with the required respect. For this reason, Chinese intelligence mechanisms and business networks are systematically trying to understand the way Trump thinks, seeking to utilize this knowledge for the de-escalation of the trade war.
China's strategy: Time, technology, and markets
Beijing seems to be using the summit as an opportunity to buy time. Chinese think tanks assess that the Xi government wants to prolong the period of relative calm in order to accelerate the technological autonomy of the country, particularly in semiconductors and artificial intelligence. At the same time, China is trying to protect its supply chains and prevent new sudden American tariffs. The Chinese strategy is based on direct agreements in exchange for a loosening of American restrictions. Beijing is reportedly willing to offer large purchases of American products — from soybeans to Boeing aircraft — in exchange for a milder American stance on technology.
China sees opportunity in the US rift with allies
Chinese analytical circles also consider that the protectionist policy of Trump toward Europe and Japan creates rifts in the Western camp. Beijing seeks to exploit these tensions to strengthen its economic relations separately with European and Asian countries. However, the same circles recognize that the deep strategic distrust between the two superpowers remains. That is why China is already preparing for the possibility of a new sudden escalation by Washington.
Iran and the war in the Middle East change the facts
From a Chinese perspective, the US–Israel war against Iran has transformed the Middle East into an even more dangerous region. Beijing attempts to appear as a neutral peacemaker and a diplomatic alternative to Washington. China, in cooperation with Pakistan, promotes mediation initiatives to prevent a broader war with Iran, utilizing its close relations with Tehran.
Hormuz is of vital importance for Beijing
The Chinese leadership is intensely concerned over the possibility of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, as more than half of Chinese oil imports pass through there. For this, Beijing presses in favor of maintaining free navigation and rejects unilateral American sanctions against Tehran. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of China Wang Yi reportedly carried out more than 26 telephone contacts within six weeks with all involved sides, openly asking Iran not to close the Strait.
China wants to appear as a "responsible superpower"
According to the Chinese analyses, Beijing attempts to exploit the American involvement in the Middle East to strengthen its image as a more reliable and stable power. China seeks to present the United States as a factor of destabilization and itself as a power of diplomatic balance. In this context, the visit of Trump to Beijing is considered an opportunity to strengthen the Chinese image internationally.
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