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China's catalytic intervention: Open Hormuz now, the war should never have started – Trump: We agree with Xi on Iran

China's catalytic intervention: Open Hormuz now, the war should never have started – Trump: We agree with Xi on Iran
President Trump claimed to have made "fantastic trade deals" with China - New critical round of talks today 15/5 among a close circle of officials - Iran's new grand strategy for Hormuz
 Adopting the tone of US President Donald Trump’s rhetoric regarding the war in Ukraine and the decisions of Joe Biden, China has proceeded with its first official announcement concerning the war waged by the US and Israel against Iran. In a significant intervention on the second day of Trump's visit to Beijing, the Chinese Foreign Ministry argues that "the war in Iran should never have happened," that there is no reason for it to continue, and that the Strait of Hormuz should open, notably without making any reference to transit tolls. In any case, this intervention does not imply that Beijing has shifted its stance toward its close diplomatic partner, Iran, from which it purchases the largest quantities of oil. Although China is not participating in the US-Iran negotiations, its word carries great influence in Tehran, which, of course, sets its own terms and rules for how a permanent ceasefire can be achieved and the Straits reopened.

In statements, US President Donald Trump maintained that he agrees with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, on Iran, specifically that it must never acquire nuclear weapons and that the war must stop. However, many analysts estimate that China's position toward Iran remains clear and that Beijing has not altered its stance following the Trump-Xi talks.

A solution must be found immediately

"This conflict, which should never have occurred, has no reason to continue. Finding a solution as soon as possible is in the interest of both the US and Iran, as well as the countries of the region and the world as a whole," stated the Iranian Foreign Ministry in its announcement. It is noted that until this statement from the Foreign Ministry, China had not placed particular emphasis on the Iran war during President Trump's contacts with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. The Chinese Foreign Ministry points out that a "comprehensive and lasting" ceasefire with Iran should be achieved as soon as possible. "China has always maintained that dialogue and negotiations are the correct path and that a military solution is not a way out. Now that the door to dialogue has opened, it should not close again," emphasizes the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

Open Hormuz

The part of the announcement referring to the Straits of Hormuz is of particular interest, even if they are not directly named. "Maritime trade routes should reopen as soon as possible, responding to the calls of the international community, and the stability and smooth functioning of global supply chains must be jointly maintained." Furthermore, it is highlighted that China and Pakistan have jointly presented a five-point initiative for the restoration of peace and stability in the region, while it is emphasized that China will continue to act in accordance with President Xi Jinping's four proposals for peace in the Middle East and will also play a "constructive role in achieving lasting peace." According to the ministry, the two leaders reached "a series of new consensuses" during their talks in Beijing, though no further details were provided. Additionally, it is reported that the two leaders agreed to properly manage each side's concerns while strengthening communication and coordination on international and regional issues.

According to the ministry, the talks between Xi and Trump "strengthened mutual understanding and deepened mutual trust."

Trump: Xi and I want the war to stop

US President Donald Trump stated that he and Chinese leader Xi Jinping share the desire to end the conflict surrounding Iran. "We discussed Iran. We have very similar positions regarding Iran. We want the conflict to end," Trump claimed during a joint event with his Chinese counterpart in Beijing. Trump noted that the war with Iran was a topic of discussion and hinted that China, which maintains close ties with Iran, is in alignment with the US regarding the desire to end the conflict and open the Straits of Hormuz. "We don't want them to obtain a nuclear weapon," the American president stated.

Xi: Landmark, historic visit by Trump

However, Chinese President Xi Jinping himself made no reference to Iran. In his remarks, Xi spoke of a historic visit. "This visit constituted a historic and landmark occasion," Xi stated. "During it, we created a new, constructive strategic relationship between our two nations; it can truly be described as a milestone event," the Chinese president underlined.

Trump: Xi's comments on US decline weren't about me, but the Biden presidency

Furthermore, Trump argued that Xi's comment about a "declining nation" referred to former President Biden and not himself. Donald Trump stated that when Chinese President Xi Jinping described the United States as a nation in decline, he was referring to the Biden administration and not his own. "When President Xi referred in a very elegant way to the United States as perhaps a declining nation, he was referring to the tremendous damage we suffered during the four years of 'Sleepy Joe Biden'," Trump wrote on the Truth Social platform after the summit with Xi in Beijing on Thursday. Trump mentioned in his post that the US suffered under the Biden presidency from "open borders, high taxation, transgender for all, men in women’s sports, 'DEI', horrible trade deals, rampant crime, and much more." However, he subsequently insisted that the country has now transformed: "The United States is currently the 'hottest' nationanywhere in the world." The president then cited "stock markets at historic highs," the "military crushing of Iran," and the record "18 trillion dollars being invested in the United States by others" as evidence of the recovery under his own leadership. Trump also claimed that President Xi recognized this success. "President Xi congratulated me on so many huge successes in such a short period of time," Trump wrote. He then concluded on an optimistic tone regarding bilateral relations: "I hope our relationship with China will be stronger and better than ever."

New round of talks

It is noted that Trump continues his visit to China for a second day today, Friday 15/5, having earlier participated in a tea ceremony at Zhongnanhai, the Communist Party leadership complex—a place visited by only a few American leadersZhongnanhai is where the top leadership of China lives and works, including Xi Jinping, and it is where the new round of talks is taking place. Unlike the large delegations involved in Thursday's talks, the two sides will participate this time with smaller groups of top officials in what is expected to be an intensive session. On the American side, Trump will be accompanied by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, as well as the US Ambassador to China David Perdue. Xi will be accompanied by his chief of staff Cai Qi, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Vice Premier He Lifeng (top trade envoy), as well as Deputy Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu and the Chinese Ambassador to the US Xie Feng.

Tea diplomacy

For Chinese diplomats, tea symbolizes traditional Chinese culture, and offering tea to a foreign leader is a sign of respect, sincerity, and politeness. Xi, Trump said at the start of a bilateral tea meeting, is "a man I respect greatly" and who "has become, truly, a friend." "We have resolved many different problems that other people could not have resolved, and the relationship is very strong," the American president said. Trump also referred to the upcoming visit of Xi to Washington, which is expected later this year. "We will show everything clearly and I hope you will leave very impressed, as I am very impressed by China," he said. In today's talks, Trump and Xi are expected to tackle a series of difficult issues before the American president returns to Washington.

Fantastic trade deals

President Trump also mentioned that he made "fantastic trade deals" with China. The Trump team is presenting the trip to Beijing as a "great victory"—but the question many are asking is whether China will ultimately honor its commitments. The Americans are presenting this visit as a success. They point to the fact that Xi Jinping agreed to start buying more American oil, mainly from Alaska, which removes the Straits of Hormuz as a transit point for much of the oil headed to China—a development the Trump team characterizes as a major win. American Trade Representative Greer also stated that the Chinese agreed to purchase agricultural products from the United States worth tens of billions of dollars. Trump is strongly seeking to support the agricultural sector, which has been severely hit by tariff wars and the closure of the Straits of Hormuz. Although the US is largely energy independent, a large portion of fertilizers and agricultural products are transported through the Straits, a fact that has negatively affected farmers. The caveat, of course, is that we have seen something similar before. China had agreed to purchase a certain amount of soybeans from the United States without ever actually reaching that goal. Therefore, it will be interesting to see how these commitments are implemented. However, it is clear that Trump and his team consider this visit successful, including the business component, with 30 business leaders participating in the trip.

Jamieson Greer (US): China wants the Straits open without restrictions

For his part, the US trade chief stated that China wants the Straits of Hormuz open without restrictions. Specifically, Jamieson Greer stated that China made it clear it wishes for the Straits of Hormuz to remain open without restrictions or transit fees. "It is truly important for China that the Straits of Hormuz are open, without tolls, without military control, and this was clear from the meeting. Therefore, we welcome it," Greer told American media. Regarding the issue of Chinese support for Iran, Greer said that Washington believes Beijing will act pragmatically. "The Chinese act very pragmatically and do not want to find themselves on the wrong side of this case. They want to see peace in the region. President Trump wants to see peace in the region. Therefore, we have great confidence that they will do everything they can to limit any kind of material support to Iran," the American official pointed out.

Iran's new grand strategy

The Iranian side has decided not to reveal details regarding the ships and vessels allowed to pass through Hormuz. However, we know that state television cited an official linked to the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC), according to whom, as of last night, at least 30 ships received the "green light" to pass through the Straits of Hormuz. At the same time, the Fars agency reported that some of these ships and vessels belong to Chinese companies and that this is an integral part of Iran's new grand strategy regarding the Straits of Hormuz. The Iranians state that the Straits are neither open nor closed. They argue, however, that they are open to everyone but closed to their opponents, and they are trying to implement this new strategy. Meanwhile, they speak of a new management regime in the Straits of Hormuz, under which the possibility of imposing charges and transit fees for ships and vessels is being discussed.

US bleeding in Iran, a victory for China

The American military "bleeding" in the war with Iran constitutes a "significant victory for China." Taiwan may not be officially on the agenda of the Trump-Xi summit, but it is impossible to ignore, Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, told Al Jazeera. "It's not just in the room—it's literally on the table," Vatanka said, referring to the Taiwan issue. In Washington, he added, many are wondering why Trump is focusing on Iran when the major challenge comes from China. "Why are the United States investing so much blood and money in this war with Iran and exhausting their military arsenal when the long-term strategic challenge is a potential conflict with China over Taiwan?" Vatanka said. According to him, a conflict over Taiwan is not imminent. However, he argued that the American war with Iranweakens the US position toward China. "What the US is doing in Iran does not strengthen America's military power. It does exactly the opposite," he stated. "This war constitutes a significant victory for China," he added, noting that Beijing is studying how the US weakens itself through the conflict with Tehran.

Promise fatigue

The Trump-Xi summit concludes with "promise fatigue on both sides." As President Trump prepares to depart from Beijing later today, political analyst Drew Thompson estimates that both Washington and Beijing will say goodbye in a climate of deep mutual distrust and a long history of unfulfilled expectations. "There is a high level of promise fatigue, where China makes promises it doesn't always keep, and of course, they feel that the United States violates many of its own promises," stated Thompson, a senior fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore and a former US Department of Defense official. Thompson described the atmosphere of the Xi-Trump summit as "carefully controlled," but emphasized that too much significance should not be given to this. "It's not just about symmetry and grandeur, but really about managing these differences," he said. Nevertheless, both sides are trying to "create mechanisms to manage these differences in a constructive way and avoid the deterioration of relations," he added.

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