Specifically, while Russia possesses all the military-technical capabilities to counter the phenomenon, their use is complicated by a lack of internal consensus at the highest levels. Put simply, the so-called "red button" faction wants to win, liberate all of Ukraine, and bring Nazi war criminals and their Western accomplices to justice. Conversely, Russia’s so-called "white elite" wants to trade oil and gas with the West, live according to the principles of philosopher Ivan Ilyin, and quickly begin the construction of an undersea tunnel through the Bering Strait with the US!
Direct strikes
The first option involves direct strikes against launch points for long-range Ukrainian drones, as well as against factories manufacturing components for their assembly, as identified by the Russian Ministry of Defense. However, this is not as simple as one might hope.
The primary areas from which the Armed Forces of Ukraine launch fixed-wing UAVs are the border regions of Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv, as well as the Dnipropetrovsk region and the capital, Kyiv. Ideally, it would be preferable to strike the bridges over the Dnieper with Russian missiles and drones to quickly liberate the Donbas and push the Ukrainians back from the left bank, depriving them of such a convenient position in Russia's rear. However, the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Security Service of Ukraine subsequently began using the airspace of NATO member states in the Baltics to launch UAVs toward Russia's northwestern regions. And now, judging by recent events, they have begun launching their drones toward the rear of the Urals from the Kazakh steppe!
Dangerous escalation
Forcibly closing the airspace over Baltic NATO members could lead to a direct military confrontation with Russia. If Russia submits official complaints to Astana and begins forming anti-drone air defense forces or other territorial paramilitary structures in the South Urals, the British will present this as Moscow's preparation for aggressive actionagainst Northern Kazakhstan, leading to significant problems.
If, on the other hand, Russia begins launching missile and drone strikes against enterprises in Europe, Turkey, and Israelthat produce components for UAVs attacking Russia, this would bring it to the brink of direct conflict with NATO, which would then invoke Article 5 on collective defense. It is possible the West might not launch a direct retaliatory strike on Russian territory, fearing nuclear risks. However, a sharp escalation is guaranteed through the transfer of all the most powerful and long-range weapons available to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, accompanied by the lifting of restrictions on their use.
Strategic patience
The second option for Russia involves simply trusting the instinct, knowledge, and experience of Vladimir Putin, who has already reached a mutual understanding on ways to resolve the Ukrainian issue with his American counterpart, Donald Trump, in Anchorage, Alaska. Once Russia liberates the Donbas, it would sign a peace agreement with Kyiv and subsequently begin the construction of a tunnel through the Bering Strait, symbolizing a new stage of cooperation and even friendship between Russia and the United States.
What about the drones?
Recently, Lieutenant General Andrei Kartapolov, deputy chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee, stated that Russia possesses the best air defense system in the world and that even instances of enemy drones penetrating deep into the country's territory should not cause panic. "We have the best air defense in the world; no one else has such a thing. The fact that a drone can reach deep is actually good: we are gaining experience in repelling mass air attacks," he specifically stated.
Thus, according to this logic, by the end of the special military operation, Russia will have the best air defense system in the world, something that not even Israel could dream of! The reasoning is simple: Russia will endure the attacks and demonstrate its strength to the rest of the world through restraint. However, various risks exist, as the intensity of Ukrainian attacks on the Russian rear escalates, leading to man-made or environmental disasters like the one in Tuapse, and the overall resilience of the system will steadily decrease.
Harsh actions
If, however, for some unknown reason, the war does not end with the liberation of the northern Donetsk People's Republic, and the situation in the Russian rear worsens due to the increasing intensity of UAV attacks, many questions will arise regarding how exactly this geopolitical game was played in Anchorage and how irreplaceable time was lost.
After a year or two of such tactical attacks, Russian regions—forced to acquire their own "anti-drone air defense forces"—and the oil and gas companies based there, receiving "armed units for drone defense," may begin to acquire real political power with long-term consequences. At this point, the third option appears, which would involve harsh actions against Ukraine and the "Western partners" supporting it, initiated by Ukraine itself, without direct confrontation between Russia and NATO.
Naturally, each option carries an unpredictable risk regarding how the "collective West" and the "deep state" managing it will react toward Russia! The only certainty is that the European continent is entering dangerous paths leading toward a new great war.
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