Alarm has erupted in the frozen North, as Finland has proposed lifting bans to allow the import and storage of nuclear weapons on its territory, provoking a strong reaction from Moscow.
Russian officials warned in the strongest terms that such moves will be taken into account in military planning and may increase risks for Helsinki.
At the same time, experts have different assessments, ranging from a political statement to a scenario with real strategic implications.
However, official Moscow reacted to Finland’s initiative regarding nuclear weapons.
The chairman of the Defense Committee of the State Duma, Andrei Kartapolov, stated that with such decisions Finland increases its own military risks:
“If Finland wants to become a target for the strategic offensive weapons of the Russian army, it is its choice,” he said.
The trigger was an initiative of the Finnish government that has already been submitted to parliament. Helsinki proposes amendments to the Atomic Energy Act and the Criminal Code to allow the import, transport, delivery and storage of nuclear weapons.
The Ministry of Defense of Finland clarified that it wants to allow such actions “within the framework of the defense of Finland, the collective defense of NATO or defense cooperation”.
From peaceful neighbor to dangerous state
The first deputy chairman of the Defense Committee of the State Duma, Alexei Zhuravlev, told Gazeta.Ru that Helsinki’s policy after joining NATO could lead to direct escalation with Russia.
According to him, this concerns not only anti-Russia rhetoric but also efforts to open the way for Western countries to acquire nuclear weapons.
“Finland is directly violating the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons of 1968. However, this UN rule has already been violated by the United States, which, contrary to its own promises, has dispersed its own atomic bombs in Europe.
Finland had a long period of prosperity when it was neutral and maintained very friendly relations with Russia. Now the situation has changed dramatically, rushed accession to NATO, anti-Russia rhetoric at the highest levels and now even attempts to acquire nuclear weapons from others,” he said.
“From a peaceful neighbor, Helsinki is turning into a dangerous state for Russia, which, among other things, threatens us with a show of force,” the deputy explained.
He also made a comparison with Ukraine and stated that a similar line of Kyiv ultimately became one of the factors that led to the start of the special military operation:
“When Zelensky suddenly began to speak about his own nuclear weapons, it is a pity that Finland did not draw conclusions, although it should have,” he concluded.
The Russian embassy also warned that Moscow will take into account even the possibility of the appearance of nuclear weapons on Finnish territory in its military planning.
“It is not necessary to be a military expert to understand that even the theoretical possibility of the appearance of nuclear weapons on Finnish territory will be taken into account in Russian military planning,” the diplomatic mission stated.
They added that statements by Helsinki about not deploying nuclear weapons in peacetime have not yet been enshrined in Finnish legislation.
Primary targets
If nuclear warheads are deployed on Finnish territory, such facilities will be primary targets in a possible conflict between Russia and NATO, said State Duma deputy and retired lieutenant general Andrei Gurulev to RTVI.
“Let us be clear, if Finland acquires nuclear weapons or stores nuclear warheads on its territory, these will be primary, critical targets that will be destroyed in the event of conflict,” he stressed.
According to him, Finland’s proximity to Russia’s borders makes the issue particularly sensitive and, in case of military escalation, Moscow will act based on the need to neutralize targets that constitute an immediate threat.
Gurulev also referred to the issue of the region of Kaliningrad, noting it as a separate strategic matter:
“First, Kaliningrad is quite far from Finland. Second, we are now talking about the storage of nuclear weapons and possible points of use. Nuclear weapons are usually destroyed by other nuclear weapons or by high-power, high-precision conventional weapons, so that they cannot be used again. And here there is no connection with Kaliningrad. Kaliningrad is another issue,” the general emphasized.
The issue of deployment
Experts doubt that Finland is actually close to deploying nuclear weapons on its territory.
For example, Nikolai Mezhevich, doctor of economics and political scientist, considers this scenario unrealistic:
“The United States certainly does not need to place nuclear weapons in Finland, as this is not a strategic priority for Washington and never has been. Even during the Cold War, the Americans did not confront the USSR over this,” the expert noted.
In his assessment, the French scenario does not seem easy either, Paris would hardly be able to allocate even a limited number of warheads and their installation would require complex storage infrastructure.
Military analyst Alexei Leonkov, however, admitted that the discussion around the Finnish initiative may be related to something more than politics.
He noted that reports of possible legalization of nuclear weapon storage appeared shortly after the opening of a modern nuclear waste storage facility in the country.
According to the expert, if the United States considers in the future transferring tactical nuclear weapons to its allies, for example B-61-12 bombs, such a facility could theoretically be used as a storage base for the American arsenal.
Dangerous escalation
In any case, the fact remains that the collective West does not stop provocations against Russia, constantly testing its patience and its red lines.
However, at some point even the “strategic composure” that characterizes the Russian political leadership and President Vladimir Putin will be exhausted, especially regarding the frightening scenario of nuclear weapons.
And this must be seriously taken into account by policymakers in Western decision-making centers.
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