Incredible blunder by Japan: Wrong move proves a "gift" to Iran – Grave risk of entanglement in the Red Sea

Japan is attempting to end its dependence on the Strait of Hormuz for oil imports by seeking alternative supply routes. However, the solution being promoted by Tokyo is far from simple, and serious questions are being raised regarding its reliability. According to the Kyodo news agency, the agreement to create an alternative route was reached following a telephone conversation between Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud.

Route via the Red Sea

The new route envisions the transport of oil through the Red Sea, with key hubs including:

• The port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates

• The port of Yanbu al-Bahr in Saudi Arabia Each of the two countries is estimated to be able to cover approximately 50% of Japan's oil needs. Additionally, supplementary quantities are expected from Azerbaijan, while the US plans to increase oil exports to Japan by up to four times compared to last year, primarily through terminals in Texas.

Support from strategic reserves

The resulting deficit is being covered through strategic reserves, which the Japanese government began releasing as early as mid-March. Since March 16, quantities of oil from state stockpiles have been channeled into the market, sufficient to cover the country's needs for approximately 45 days. This oil is available at relatively low prices, at levels seen before the US and Israel attack against Iran. In total, Japan's strategic reserves amount to approximately 470 million barrels, a quantity sufficient for 254 days without imports.

Heavy dependence on the Middle East

The data highlights the country's intense energy dependence: In the first half of 2025, Japan imported an average of 2.415 million barrels per day. 94% of imports originated from the Middle East. 90%-93% of the cargoes transited through the Strait of Hormuz. The need for energy diversification, although raised in the past, appears to be substantially implemented only now.

The "weak point" of the new route

Despite the plans, the alternative via the Red Sea is not without risks. The primary problem is located at the Bab el-Mandeb strait, which connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. The Houthi rebels of Yemen have the capability to disrupt or even block navigation at this point, creating a new geopolitical "headache." So far, threats to blockade the passage have not materialized; however, the threat remains real.

Only Iran can "unlock" the Bab el-Mandeb strait

The United States intends to militarily confront the Houthis at the Bab el-Mandeb strait. Does this mean the start of a ground operation? What alliances are forming, given that there is no serious interest from the states of the Arabian Peninsula, and what are the (delicate) geopolitical balances? Which transport routes will help resolve this problem? Why only Iran can unblock the Bab el-Mandeb strait, experts on geopolitical balances in the region point out. In the area of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, the United States assembled a coalition of 10 countries and announced the start of military operation "Prosperity Guardian." Their goal is to fight the Houthis from Yemen, who dared to declare war on Israel over the genocide in Gaza and are striking ships in the straits. 10% of global trade is blocked. How is this situation assessed? The Houthis have been fighting for a long time, since 2015. The military operation against them stopped without producing any results. However, the Houthis remain a militant group supported by Iran and may pursue their goals against shipping companies in the Red Sea. This is a major problem, especially for the countries using this transport route. For Egypt and Saudi Arabia, the Bab el-Mandeb strait is a strategic region. The US operation is important, but it will not go very far. No one should expect the United States to organize a second Afghanistan, Syria, or Iraq there. Most likely, the military operation will be limited to the sea; it will not be a ground operation, and its result will be an agreement with Iran regarding the situation in Gaza or an easing of sanctions against Iran. For Egypt and Saudi Arabia, this conflict is not very beneficial. That is, Western countries have joined the coalition, but Yemen's neighbors would not like to enter a conflict and are trying to distance themselves as much as possible. Some consequences of this conflict are also unfavorable for the United States. Therefore, everything will likely end in negotiations with Iran.

Trump intervention and impasse in Hormuz

At the same time, US President Donald Trump maintains that the Strait of Hormuz is under full American control. In a post on Truth Social, he stated that no ship can enter or exit without the permission of the US Navy, emphasizing that this situation will continue until Iran agrees to negotiate with Washington. In practice, this is a blockade of Iranian ports, a fact that has "frozen" negotiations between the two sides. Without an agreement, the prospect of reopening this key energy route remains uncertain. Essentially, Japan is attempting to build an alternative energy network under pressure, yet the new route does not eliminate the risks. Instead, it transfers the problem to other geopolitical "straits," maintaining uncertainty in the global energy market.

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