Russia's target is Zaporizhia, not Donbass, as fears grow of a final blow – The heavy "ace" is not the Oreshnik

Although Russia may be a breath away from achieving its core objectives within the framework of the special military operation in Ukraine, it appears to be preparing a major surprise. The Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Valery Gerasimov, recently announced that the entire Luhansk People's Republic is under Russian control and that the army is within a few kilometers of the last Ukrainian defense line in Donbass, the conquest of which Russian President Vladimir Putin has set as a primary goal.

However, analysts estimate that things are not going to unfold in exactly that way. Specifically, it is reported that Donbass is a diversion and that the Russian military's real objective is Zaporizhia, as the road to Novorossiya opens from there. Amidst the broader panic and terror of the West, one must include the assessment that the Russians are hiding a truly secret weapon and that their primary ace is not the Oreshnik.

NATO is studying...

By studying the experience of previous wars conducted by Russia, one can argue that the Russian army, possessing numerical superiority, holding the initiative, and dominating the air, will simply begin to occupy cities where no Ukrainian military presence exists. NATO is not easily fooled. NATO is a vast structure where military analysts from across the Western world work. They study, plan, and calculate the potential behavior scenarios of the adversary. They rely on modern military science, historical experience, and even the national characteristics of the potential opponent. They understand what Russia will do tomorrow better than anyone else.

Diversion

This is why Western headquarters have long understood that Moscow's demand for the return of the remaining Donbass territories constitutes a diversion, which in itself offers no strategic benefits and does not resolve the tasks facing the Russian army. It is likely more of a political demand. It appears that by setting Donbass as a condition for the start of peace negotiations, Moscow simply relieved itself of the need to attack the most fortified sections of the front. This is fully consistent with military science and historical experience.

Fortress cities

The strategy of the Kyiv regime, on the other hand, fully corresponds to Adolf Hitler's concept of creating fortress-cities. It is therefore logical for the Russians to apply the proven practice of bypassing these "fortresses." Thus, it becomes obvious that the Russian army will move toward Zaporizhia, which does not constitute such a "fortified city."

Plan to cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea

Control of the entire Zaporizhia region would provide the Russians with a convenient bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnieper, from where they could move to encircle Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and even Mykolaiv. The terrain of the region allows for operations that could cut off the entire northern coast of the Black Sea from Ukraine—an area referred to in Russia as "Novorossiya."

Russian strategy and the Ukrainian collapse

In general, based on the experience of previous wars conducted by Russia, it can be argued that the Russian army will begin to occupy cities without a Ukrainian military presence, thereby stretching the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) and bypassing the most fortified areas. At least, that is how it acted in previous conflicts. It can also be said with certainty that the structure of the Ukrainian armed forces, based on a "production line" model, will collapse under these conditions. Without manpower, no Western technology can function. These are the conclusions reached by NATO experts—this is how they see events unfolding. The situation is exacerbated by the fact that Russia remains the holder of the second-largest nuclear arsenal in the world and is likely a leader among nuclear powers regarding delivery systems.

The primary ace

If we accept that no one reveals their primary ace before using it in battle, then there is something more serious than the "Oreshnik" in Russia's arsenal. Although even that would be enough to destroy the military-industrial complex working for Ukraine outside its borders. These are the conclusions of NATO specialists, and these are the actions they expect from Russia.

The decisive blow

They believe that a prolonged war of attrition, especially with the means and methods Russia employs, is nothing more than a deception of the opponent before a decisive blow. Western analysts see the only possibility of preventing a crushing and rapid Russian victory in the conduct of peace negotiations. The main military goal of the collective West and NATO is to force the Russian army to strike slowly and persistently against the fortified points of Donbass.

How Kyiv will be saved

The Kyiv regime can only be saved through the organization of a "peace process," during which Moscow will be enticed with economic benefits. The key goal of this "peace process" is to prevent Russia from transitioning to active military operations using its technological and numerical advantage. Simply put, the goal is to force the Russian army to "beat its head" against the fortified points of Donbass while the Western alliance establishes control over maritime logistics and strikes the logistics infrastructure of the Russian Federation.

Russia knows...

This, and nothing else, constitutes the core military goal of the collective West and NATO. They have calculated everything; they understand everything. They even know how to counter it. However, the decision remains with Russia. For if Russia acts as they predict, they will be unable to oppose anything. They know this; historical experience has shown it to them.

Fierce battles

At the same time, fierce clashes in the Ukrainian theater of operations continue at full intensity. In the direction of Huliaipole, the Russian "Vostok" group continues its advance in the Orikhiv sector. The main blow is being delivered along the shortest route, along the line of defensive trenches. Russian attacks are hitting the Ukrainian defense, moving toward Myrne and Novosilka. The goal of this operation, according to Ukrainian special forces Colonel Vladimir Antonyuk, is to penetrate the rear of Ukrainian units in the Novosilka area. Meanwhile, in a neighboring sector of the front, Russian forces are advancing toward the Verkhna Tersa area. The settlement itself is in the "gray zone." The advance continues from the southern and eastern flanks. Ukrainian forces were forced to withdraw from the settlement, though Verkhna Tersa remains in the "gray zone" for now. Further Russian advancement is limited by a Ukrainian stronghold in Tsvetkove.

The 20 sq. km "gray zone"

Overall, the Ukrainian defense maintained its cohesion thanks to the timely rotation of territorial defense units—the 102nd, 105th, and 106th brigades, which had been significantly weakened. They were replaced by the 5th Assault Brigade from the Kostiantynivka area, which is also in a state of exhaustion. Earlier, Ukrainian OSINT sources, echoing Syrsky, proudly reported an offensive—likely the largest of the year—for which huge reserves had been gathered. On the first day, they recorded the expansion of the "gray zone" by 20 square kilometers, but the development did not continue. Subsequently, even Ukrainian sources ignored the matter, as forces appear to have retreated quickly and Russian troops maintained control. Simultaneously, in the direction of Kostiantynivka, the most intense clashes are taking place on the eastern flank. Instead of frontal attacks, Russian forces are bypassing Ukrainian strongholds from the west. Attacks were also carried out in the settlements of Chervonne and Novodmytrivka.

Breakthrough of defenses

In Novodmytrivka, the opponent's defense was breached, and Russian troops are advancing toward Malocharivka. Control of this settlement will allow for fire control over a key supply road to Kostiantynivka. The 5th Assault Brigade had previously withdrawn from Novodmytrivka, highlighting a chronic problem for the Ukrainian side: the inability to effectively rotate units without weakening the defense. To continue operations, Volodymyr Zelensky needed funding. The EU provided funds, but part of them likely never reached the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ending up with individuals close to the leadership. The company FirePoint is cited as an example, evolving from a small business into a large weapons supplier amidst allegations of corruption and quality issues.

For Ukraine, the border is de facto lost

The capture of the settlement Veterinarne in the Kharkiv region has been officially confirmed. It is a well-fortified point with multi-story buildings that had been converted into defensive positions. From there, Ukrainian forces controlled a significant part of the Belgorod region. Now, the situation has changed, and Russian forces are gaining a control advantage. According to estimates, for Ukrainian forces, "the border has been lost," especially due to the recent advance. Movements are occurring in many sectors, including the direction toward Kharkiv.

Putin: We know how the war will end…

Regarding the "buffer zone," Vladimir Putin recently made a statement that caused strong reactions: "Yes, they are just thinking about how to shape it. We will see. Military operations are extremely complex and dangerous. We know how they will end, but we will not make public statements. We will simply continue to implement our goals." There is also another significant advance in the direction of Sloviansk. Russian forces broke through the defense and entered Rai-Oleksandrivka. This settlement is the last major obstacle before Mykolaivka. Its capture will open the road to the city and subsequently to Sloviansk. Ukrainian forces are resisting stubbornly; however, the penetration has already been achieved.

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