A chilling assessment regarding the future of modern civilization has been voiced by Nobel Prize-winning physicist David Gross, warning that humanity may be just a few decades away from an existential catastrophe due to nuclear war. The 2004 laureate estimates that approximately 35 years remain before humanity faces the prospect of total destruction, basing his analysis on probabilistic models similar to those used for radioactive decay.
From 1% to 2%: A doubling of risk
In an interview, Gross explained that after the end of the Cold War, the probability of a nuclear conflict was estimated at approximately 1% annually. Today, however, he considers that this percentage has increased to 2%. "Even after the Cold War, when arms control agreements existed—which have now vanished—there were estimates of a 1% probability every year," he stated. "I believe it is now closer to 2%. That is a one-in-fifty chance every year. At this rate, the expected life expectancy of humanity is about 35 years."
Collapse of balances and a new nuclear reality
Gross attributes the worsening estimates to the deterioration of international conditions over the last 30 years, noting that "things have become much worse," as evidenced daily by the news. Particular concern is raised by the fact that there are now nine nuclear powers, making arms control exponentially more complex. "Even three are infinitely harder to control than two," he pointedly remarked. At the same time, the expiration of the New START treaty in February 2026, without the signing of new major agreements over the last decade, intensifies the climate of uncertainty.
Artificial intelligence and "uncontrollable" weapons
The Nobel physicist also expressed intense concern over the rapid evolution of technology, particularly automation and artificial intelligence in weapons systems. "Agreements and rules between states are collapsing. Weapons are becoming increasingly extreme. Automation and perhaps very soon AI will control these systems," he warned. As he emphasized, it will be extremely difficult to prevent the delegation of decisions to AI systems due to the speed at which they operate, while simultaneously noting that such systems can produce erroneous or "hallucinatory" results.
From science to survival
Gross admits that in recent years his thoughts have shifted from scientific progress to the very survival of humanity. "I no longer think only about the future of knowledge, but about whether there will be a future for humanity," he declared. Despite the bleak backdrop, he left a glimmer of hope: "Nuclear weapons were created by us. We can also stop them."
Reactions and skepticism
His statements triggered intense reactions on social media, with users expressing everything from philosophical views to ironic comments and skepticism. Some argued that there is no "expiration date" for humanity, while others addressed AI systems ironically, asking for an exact prediction. There were also voices questioning the scenario, believing that global elites would not allow a nuclear conflict to occur.
The message behind the numbers
David Gross, known for his work on asymptotic freedom in quantum chromodynamics, attempts to translate geopolitical risks into tangible numbers and timeframes. By linking probabilities to current tensions in Europe, the Middle East, and South Asia, he sends a clear message: the time to avert a global catastrophe is not unlimited—and it is already counting down.
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