In a surprising reversal, the European Commission is reportedly withdrawing the most pivotal element of the 20th package of sanctions against Russia: the total ban on the transport of Russian oil by European companies and the provision of related services, such as insurance. According to diplomatic sources in Brussels, the Commission is now proposing a "truncated" version of the package, requesting immediate approval from the ambassadors of the 27 European Union member states, as reported by TASS.
Pressure from the market and Hormuz
This change in stance is not coincidental. The European tanker shipping industry is already under intense pressure, as the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has caused severe disruptions to maritime transport and significant financial losses. In this environment, a total ban on Russian cargoes could dramatically worsen the situation.
Political deadlock and internal resistance
The 20th sanctions package had been presented as early as January 2026 as the toughest to date, aiming to strike a decisive blow against Russian energy flows. However, its adoption was blocked by Hungary and Slovakia, which linked their approval to the resumption of oil flow through the Druzhba pipeline. The two countries, which are particularly dependent on Russian energy supplies, exercised a veto, simultaneously blocking a 90 billion euro funding package for Ukraine for the 2026–2027 period.
Signal from Kyiv, but without result
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on April 21 the intention to restart the transit of Russian oil as of April 22. However, so far, Hungary and Slovakia have not confirmed that the flows have indeed been restored.
A package without "teeth"?
The weakening of this core measure raises questions about the effectiveness of the new sanctions package. The original intention for a full restriction on the maritime transport of Russian oil seems to be retreating in the face of market pressures, geopolitical balances, and internal contradictions within the EU. The result is yet another example of the difficult balance Europe is called to manage between political pressure on Moscow and the need to maintain energy and economic stability.
Druzhba "opens"
Meanwhile, Ukraine has informed the Hungarian energy group MOL Group that flows of Russian crude via the Druzhba pipeline are restarting, clearing the way for the lifting of the political blockade on a 90 billion euro loan to Kyiv, according to Reuters. The pipeline had become a "hot spot" of European energy policy following a Russian drone strike in western Ukraine, which caused damage and interrupted supplies to Hungary and Slovakia. Budapest and Bratislava had accused Kyiv of delays in repairs—a claim the Ukrainian side denied. According to an announcement by Ukrtransnafta, the company managing the Ukrainian section of the pipeline, repairs were completed and the force majeure conditions in place since January 27, 2026, ceased to exist on April 21. The company now declares it is ready to restart oil transit immediately.
Political "key" for the 90 billion
The resumption of flows takes on critical political significance, as Hungary had blocked the approval of a European loan to Ukraine, linking its stance to the restoration of energy flows. The 90 billion euro package—concerning the financing of Ukraine's needs for the years 2026–2027—covers approximately two-thirds of the country's requirements amid the war with Russia. With the prospect of oil restoration, the ambassadors of the European Union member states are expected to restart consultations for the final approval of the package.
New political balance in Budapest
The political change in Hungary is also of particular interest. Election winner Peter Magyar publicly called on Volodymyr Zelensky to immediately restore the pipeline's operation, while also requesting the resumption of Russian shipments. This stance signals a potential realignment of Hungarian policy, which until recently—under Viktor Orban—exerted intense pressure on the EU through vetoes.
Energy and geopolitics in one line
The Druzhba case highlights once again how energy and geopolitics remain inextricably linked. A pipeline is not just infrastructure—it is a lever of pressure, a negotiating tool, and, at critical moments, the "key" to billions of euros and political decisions. The question now is whether the restart of flows will lead to stabilization or if it constitutes merely a temporary respite in a constantly shifting energy and political landscape.
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