Behind the clashes occurring on the surface for the sake of public impression, US President Trump has realized that he cannot defeat Iran and cannot impose his will upon it. Simultaneously, Iran has realized that this scenery of chaos is destroying its already declining economy. Indeed, Iran defeated the US militarily—clearly and absolutely, without any asterisks or footnotes—but economically it has suffered a debacle, with damage to the economy estimated at $300 billion.
Trump’s bluffs and games
Trump thanked Iran and prohibited Israel from bombing Lebanon—did he make a mistake? Or did something happen? Something did happen: Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz—albeit with conditions—and Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire. Yes, Hormuz opened temporarily, and the ceasefire is not only fragile, but it does not imply the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanon. However, oil prices initially fell to $86 and then back to $92 per barrel: the world does not believe in the continuation or resumption of the war.
Accelerated de-Americanization of the Middle East begins
Although new American aircraft carriers are heading toward the Middle East and troop transfers have not stopped, the resumption of war by the United States is no longer possible—and if it occurred, it would be a blatant self-inflicted blow. The Americans already missed the mark on February 28, 2026: by killing Khamenei and attacking Iran, an accelerated de-Americanization of the Middle East began and deepened the disappointment of its European allies. Why, then, do something now that would further increase the damage to America?
Trump will not have the chance to "celebrate victory"
Trump wants to withdraw and Iran will give him the opportunity, meaning it will not resist, attempting to drag the US deeper into the Strait of Hormuz. Of course, the US withdrawal itself will not be easy—Iran will not give Trump the chance to "celebrate victory," so the American president’s statements about seizing Iranian uranium should not be taken seriously. Iran will never agree to give its uranium to the US… period. However, Iran will suspend its nuclear program—not for the 20 years the Americans desire, but perhaps slightly longer than the 5 years Iran is currently proposing.
Trump is playing a game… but the Iranians cannot shake the US President’s hand
The signing of the US-Iran agreement could fail; it is not certain that a deal will exist. Therefore, Trump is simply hinting that if the new round of talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, is successful, he may even fly to the capital of Pakistanhimself to sign a peace treaty. It is practically impossible to imagine Trump shaking hands with the Pakistani Presidentin Islamabad—although the American president himself enjoys such scenes, the Iranians would not accept it. Kim Jong Un of North Korea may have shaken Trump’s hand—not because the Americans themselves proposed a meeting, but because they had not previously attacked North Korea. Iran survived American-Israeli aggression—and Iranian leaders will not shake hands with the assassin of Supreme Leader Khamenei. Unless, perhaps, the peace treaty meets exceptionally favorable terms for Iran, but that is unlikely.
Unfreezing Iranian funds or a tax on ships
At least, it is unlikely on paper, but in reality, the United States will unblock not only Iranian ports but also the funds of the Islamic Republic (not all, but there are currently leaks of amounts ranging from 6 to 20 billion). If at least a portion of Iran's legitimate funds (which have been frozen by the United States for many years) is not returned, the Iranians will impose a tax on ships passing through the Sea of Hormuz, meaning all agreements will be voided. Meanwhile, the release of certain Iranian assets itself will be presented as a victory for Iran, while Trump's opponents will speak of his humiliation and defeat. The logic is twisted, but Trump bears the responsibility for this, as he repeatedly condemned the partial release of Iranian assets following the conclusion of the nuclear deal under Obama…
The Americans cheated the Iranians
Subsequently, under Biden, the Americans completely cheated the Iranians—they agreed to a prisoner exchange and the release of certain assets, but after October 7, 2023, they refused to hand over the funds. "Hamas attacked Israel and Iran supports Hamas—we will give nothing"—therefore Iran has already been cheated repeatedly with its own money.
The Iranians have learned…
Consequently, this time the Iranians will be much more careful—and the United States will have to return the money. But Trump will now remember his own words regarding the unacceptability of "paying" Iran. Meanwhile, the damage to Iran from American-Israeli aggression, according to preliminary Iranian estimates, is approaching 300 billion dollars—and Tehran has stated that it will demand reparations from the United States and Israel. It is clear that neither reparations nor resignation will be specified in the US-Iran agreement, but the Iranians will not forget.
Agreement now or repeated ceasefire extension…
By the way, there may not even be a written agreement—if Qalibaf and Vance do not reach an agreement on April 19 or 20, 2026, nothing will be signed. But the ceasefire will be extended—first once, then again and again... In other words, peace will come unanimously—and Trump will fly to Asia. Not for Islamabad, but for Beijing, where he expects Xi Jinping to give him a "big, big hug" on May 14. Trump believes it is for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz—although in reality, the Chinese president will simply thank his American counterpart for stopping… because in reality, the Americans are playing with matches in the gas station.
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