Europe is already at war with Russia, Trump dismantles NATO and eyes Putin as targets are "locked"

Europe appears to be walking into a dangerous illusion of security as the conflict in Ukraine escalates and the lines of engagement broaden. In this explosive environment, the rhetoric of "monitoring from a distance" is collapsing, as the possibility of direct involvement ceases to be theoretical and acquires increasingly tangible characteristics. Yesterday, British newspapers informed their readers that Russia was about to unleash World War III. The Daily Express urgently published thirteen locations where Britons could find shelter from Russian missiles. Such lists usually include more peaceful items—for example, thirteen resorts where one can get drunk cheaply.

Panic and "warnings"

The hysteria was triggered by a belated statement from the Russian Ministry of Defense, which highlighted the sharp increase in the production of drones for Ukraine in European countries. The Russian military meticulously listed the key UAV production plants, even citing their exact addresses. The list includes London and Riga, Munich and Madrid, Venice and Vilnius. The coordinates are available. The Russian Ministry of Defense, of course, explained to Europeans—confused by their own propaganda—that their governments, without informing them, have already dragged them into a war against Russia. A war that, as argued, has always ended in defeat and shame for Europe. The Russian military "regards this decision (to increase drone production for the Ukrainian Armed Forces) as a deliberate step leading to a sharp escalation of the military-political situation across the entire European continent."

A continent on a collision course

From a purely military perspective, the picture is clear: European leaders and Defense Ministers are now speaking openly about the inevitability of a military conflict with Russia. The start of such a war—or, as it is called, a "response to Russian aggression"—is chronologically placed between 2027 and 2030. At the same time, arms production is increasing, NATO is conducting exercises near Russian borders, mandatory service is returning, and movement restrictions are being established for men of conscription age. Europe, in practice, is preparing for war.

Drones as a precursor

The attacks by European unmanned aerial vehicles on Russian territory appear to be part of this preparation. European armies are closely analyzing the results, evaluating the effectiveness of Russian air defense, and examining ways to overload it. The scenario is clear: a city that exhausts its anti-missile defense stockpiles becomes vulnerable to long-range strikes. Thus, a strategy of mass attack using cheap drones as a precursor is taking shape.

"Legitimate targets" in Europe

The Russian Ministry of Defense made it clear that Europe can no longer hide behind Ukraine. Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council, put it even more bluntly: drone production facilities in Europe are legitimate targets. This means they can be hit at any time. Residents of cities such as Munich or Vilnius are indirectly called upon to take this into account.

Moscow's message

Last night, the Russian armed forces launched a massive attack on drone production facilities in Ukraine, using long-range precision weapons from land, air, and sea. According to the Russian side, all targets were hit. The message is clear: the model of using Ukraine as a "shield" has been exposed and will not go unanswered.

"Sleep well"

"Sleep well," Dmitry Medvedev ironically wished Europeans. A phrase that, as implied, should be read in light of the capabilities of missile systems like the Iskander and Oreshnik. Perhaps, as hinted, some may want to hum loudly—but its meaning can no longer be ignored.

The nightmarish scenario terrifying the West

Meanwhile, Western media outlets, such as the Washington Post, consider that Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be in one of the most pressing phases of his rule. They see the Russian military... bogged down in Ukraine, despite massive losses. They also see a collapse of the economy, despite the temporary boost from rising oil prices.

Scenarios of a new conflict

In this environment, concerns are growing that the Kremlin may be considering the next step: a broader conflict with Europe. Such an eventuality could be considered a "window of opportunity" before Europe completes its rearmament, Ukraine acquires longer-range weapons, and while Donald Trump is in the White House, exercising intense criticism of NATO.

Analysts' warning

This possibility is analyzed in a report by Eugene Rumer, a former US intelligence official and current executive at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. As he points out, "Russia is likely to emerge from the war less secure, angrier, and more threatening to Europe." According to him, Ukraine remains "unfinished business" for Putin.

Military attrition and pressure

Analyst Michael Kofman notes that Russia failed to achieve strategic breakthroughs last year and started 2026 on a negative note. In March alone, losses amounted to about 35,000 dead and wounded, exceeding the rate of force replenishment. As he estimates, Putin will struggle to maintain the same tempo of operations.

Europe as a "target"

For Moscow, Ukraine constitutes a threat precisely because it seeks to join Europe. As Eugene Rumer notes, from the Kremlin's perspective, "Europe is already at war with Russia." This assessment is reinforced by warnings from NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who has stated that Russia could be ready to use military force against NATO within the next five years. "Let us have no illusions—we are all now on the eastern flank," he had emphasized.

The most dangerous question

The critical question that arises is: what will Donald Trump do in the event of a Russian attack on a European country? His intense criticism of NATO has already shaken the confidence of Europeans in American security guarantees. In recent statements, he characterized the Alliance as a "paper tiger" that "Putin is not afraid of."

A dangerous power vacuum

Analysts warn that a potential distancing of the US could create a dangerous power vacuum. As Eugene Rumer notes, a "transatlantic rift" before Europe fully strengthens its defense would pave the way for Vladimir Putin to advance his strategic ambitions.

Europe facing critical decisions

Europe is now confronted with a scenario that until recently was considered unthinkable. Developments show that the conflict in Ukraine is not an isolated event but part of a broader geopolitical showdown. And the question that looms is whether the West is truly ready to face the consequences.

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