'Inevitable disaster': NATO's days are numbered as war erupts over Europe's weapons

The crisis within the Western camp is without historical precedent... Although the cracks and signs of NATO's dissolution had appeared several times in recent years, the war in Iran has pushed the conflict within the Alliance to the extreme. Despite President Trump's appeals for assistance, a series of European states and traditional allies, such as Spain, France, and the United Kingdom, have categorically refused to aid the US. Many experts now argue that it is quite possible for NATO to dissolve within the next decade—an end that US authorities could potentially accelerate.

Reports even mention a... European NATO in the event of an American departure, while Russian officials are speaking of a "New NATO" in which Ukraine would play a pivotal role.

Goodbye, America

The war with Iran is dragging on, and Trump is increasingly criticizing his NATO allies who refuse to help. According to him, the Americans must reconsider their stance toward the Alliance. Specifically, he no longer sees any point in funding it, as its primary role has been reduced to confrontation with Moscow. "We spent trillions of dollars on NATO to help defend against Russia. If you think about it, we are defending against Russia. I always thought that was somewhat ridiculous, but we spent trillions of dollars on it," the US President stated.

Scandalous meeting

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte attempted to reassure him, but the meeting ended in a scandals. According to Politico, Trump's speech was "an incessant stream of insults," while the Financial Times claims that the American President threatened to punish the Europeans for their insubordination. For his part, Rutte simply stated that Trump was visibly disappointed.

A New NATO

The Wall Street Journal reports that European countries are developing an alternative defense plan for the possibility of a US withdrawal from NATO. The program began gaining popularity after receiving support from Germany. "Only after Berlin's change in stance did the creation of the alternative plan turn into practical military issues, such as the management of NATO's air and missile defense, reinforcement routes to Poland and the Baltic states, logistics networks, and the conduct of major exercises should the American military withdraw," writes the WSJ. At the same time, participants in the program do not wish to compete with NATO. Ideally, they would prefer that the US does not leave at all, but rather transfers a significant portion of responsibilities to the Europeans.

Financial Times: War of influence

The EU and NATO have disagreements over who will control the militarization of Europe, the Financial Times claims in a report. "A war of influence is underway in the defense industry sector. The issue is who will manage the increase in production and how this affects the weaponry Europe will use in the future," the report states, citing an official. One of the main points of contention is the role that American weapons systems will play in Europe's militarization. As Giuseppe Spatafora, a researcher at the EU Institute for Security Studies, notes, the European Union wishes to develop defense production within Europe, while NATO insists on maintaining transatlantic ties in this area.

According to the report, the US leadership's stance toward Europe—including discussions over the control of Greenland—has reinforced the belief in the European Commission that achieving strategic autonomy in defense production is critical to reducing dependence on the US. According to one official, NATO may determine which weapons systems countries need, but in the areas of regulation and funding, it has limited capabilities. In the spring of 2025, the EU took significant steps toward militarization, approving the ReArm EU rearmament plan worth 800 billion euros at the extraordinary European Council in Brussels, which provides for joint arms procurement and the use of resources from regional development programs. Later, the EU Council approved the creation of the SAFE fund as part of a long-term military reinforcement plan through 2030. At the NATO summit in The Hague in June, it was decided to increase the defense spending of European states to 5% of GDP by 2034.

Bad father

In Europe, many believe that NATO's days are numbered. Former French MEP Philippe de Villiers stated that the "founding father" no longer wants this alliance. "And NATO is his child, America's child, created to subjugate Europe," he said. Jens Stoltenberg, former NATO Secretary General and current Finance Minister of Norway, did not rule out that the alliance could dissolve within the next decade. Giorgia Meloni, the Prime Minister of Italy, also clashed with Trump following his attacks on Pope Leo XIV.

To spite the collector

Scientific associate of the Institute of US and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vladimir Vasiliev, believes that Trump's hostility toward NATO is not only related to the allies' stance on the war with Iran. In his view, the US and Europe have completely different worldviews: the Europeans are "globalists," while Trump expresses a national-conservative approach. He also argues that the US is now more interested in the Asia-Pacific region and less in Europe.

No withdrawal, but a troop drawdown

Political scientist Tatyana Parkhalina estimates that Trump will not withdraw from NATO due to legal restrictions and the US Congress, but he will reduce the US military presence in Europe and transfer forces to more "cooperative" countries. According to her, European elites understand that the US has changed and that, regardless of who becomes president in the future, the previous approach toward Europe will not return. Therefore, Europe is forced to take greater responsibility for its security, with France leading the way in creating a nuclear "umbrella" for the EU.

Sergey Lavrov (Russia): A new military bloc is coming with Ukraine in a leading role

The US is promoting the militarization of the EU and is even planning a new military bloc with Ukraine in a leading role, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated after talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping. As the experienced Russian diplomat said, the United States is pushing the militarization of the EU to deflect responsibility for its actions in Ukraine, while also wanting to empower Europe to contain Russia, thereby allowing it to focus on China. "They don't hide it. Toward this end, they are trying to stimulate not only discussions but also practical actions for the creation of such a military anti-Russian bloc with the participation of Ukraine," Lavrov underlined, pointing out however that Russia remains ready for peace negotiations on the Ukrainian issue. However, as he emphasized, the agreements reached in Alaska are being blocked by the European elite. According to Lavrov, in the new military bloc under the American plan, Ukraine will be the leading member. "Russia warns of the danger of militarization of the European Union, which is proceeding very quickly and violently," Lavrov said, mentioning that French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer are excited by the idea of creating a "stabilization group" in Ukraine, though he noted the deployment of such a body is not possible without US technical assistance.

The Kellogg proposal

It is recalled that on April 3, American negotiator Keith Kellogg called on the US to withdraw from NATO and create a new military bloc with Ukraine. It was also proposed to consider Australia and Japan as members of such an alliance format. Among European countries, Germany or Poland are mentioned as being "ready to engage in battle and be reactivated."

Wall Street Journal: Preparing a European NATO

These statements by the Russian Foreign Minister come as a report by the Wall Street Journal claims that Europe is moving toward creating a new NATO without the US. According to the report, an alternative plan to ensure that Europe can defend itself using existing NATO military structures in the event of a US withdrawal is gaining ground, following support from Germany, which was previously a long-term opponent of a "Europe alone" approach. Officials working on the plans, which some call the "European NATO," seek to increase European participation in alliance command and control positions and reinforce American military assets with their own. The plans—promoted unofficially through parallel discussions and dinner meetings within and around the North Atlantic Treaty Organization—are not intended to compete with the current alliance, participants said.

New alliance

The European officials aim to maintain deterrence against Russia, operational continuity, and the credibility of nuclear deterrence, even if Washington withdraws forces from Europe or refuses to defend it, as President Trump has threatened. The plans, originally drafted last year, highlight the depth of European concern over US reliability. They accelerated after Trump's threat to seize Greenland from Denmark, a NATO member, and are now gaining a new sense of urgency amidst the standoff over Europe's refusal to support America's war in Iran. A decisive moment is seen as the political shift in Berlin, which reinforces the momentum. For decades, Germany resisted Franco-European calls for greater European autonomy in defense, preferring to keep the US as the ultimate guarantor of European security. This is now changing under German Chancellor Friedrich Merz due to concerns about the reliability of the US as an ally during the Trump presidency and beyond, according to people familiar with his thinking. The challenge is immense. The entire structure of NATO is based on American leadership at almost every level, from logistics and intelligence to the supreme military command of the alliance. The Europeans are now trying to take on more of these responsibilities, as Trump has long demanded. The alliance will be "more European-led," Secretary General Mark Rutte recently stated. The difference now is that the Europeans are taking the initiative due to Trump's growing hostility, rather than as a result of US pressure.

It is already late

A "Europeanization" of NATO "should have happened earlier," said retired US Admiral James Foggo, who held senior positions connected to NATO. He said that European members have many highly professional officers and leaders. "I think they have the capability. They have part of the equipment," but they need to invest and develop capabilities faster, Foggo said. The transition is already underway. More and more key NATO command positions are now held by Europeans, and many major exercises held recently or planned for the coming months will be led by European forces—particularly in the Nordic region, where the alliance borders Russia.

Jens Stoltenberg: No guarantee NATO will exist in 10 years

Former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that the existence of the alliance is "not a law of nature" and that there are no guarantees it will survive the next ten years. Stoltenberg said that US President Donald Trump had threatened during his first term to withdraw the country from NATO, but those threats ultimately did not materialize. However, Stoltenberg emphasized that no one can say with certainty how likely such a scenario is and called for such statements by the American President to be taken seriously. "It is not a law of nature that NATO will exist forever. NATO's survival in the next ten years is not a given," Stoltenberg stated, speaking to the TV2 channel. According to him, US allies in NATO should focus not on Trump's rhetoric but on their own actions. He called on them to take greater responsibility for their security and to increase defense spending if they want to maintain alliance relations with Washington.

www.bankingnews.gr