With the US naval blockade having been in effect for several hours, oil prices hovering around 100 dollars per barrel, and a fragile ceasefire set to expire in one week, the question of exactly what US President Donald Trump hopes to achieve in Iran remains largely unanswered. This uncertainty grows more pressing following the collapse of talks in Pakistan last weekend. Analysts are already questioning what comes next: will bombing resume when the truce ends on April 22? How exactly does the US intend to enforce its naval blockade? Will they attack Russian or Chinese vessels, or block European ships that have already paid for Iranian oil? It is clear that as the days pass, the deadlock for the US and Trump will only intensify. However, it is equally clear that Trump does not want further involvement; on the contrary, he wants to find a dignified way for the US to exit the war while presenting a narrative of success. Yet, that "success" is currently nowhere on the horizon.
Resounding intervention by Xi Jinping: 4 proposals for Iran to avoid the "law of the jungle"
Chinese leader Xi Jinping called on the world not to allow a "return to the law of the jungle" in his most significant remarks on Middle East security since the war between the US, Israel, and Iran broke out. During a meeting with Crown Prince Khaled bin Mohamed of Abu Dhabi, the President of China maintained that China seeks to promote peace and dialogue, reiterating that it will "continue to play a constructive role," according to an official statement from Chinese state media. Within the framework of his "four proposals," Xi Jinping called for adherence to the principle of peaceful coexistence and the development of a "sustainable security architecture," a term frequently used by Beijing to criticize the US alliance system. Furthermore, he demanded that international law be followed without selective application, echoing Chinese criticism of the US. "The authority of international law must be ensured; it must not be applied selectively or abandoned when inconvenient, nor should the world be allowed to return to the law of the jungle," Xi Jinping stated. He also emphasized that state sovereignty must be protected, including the safety of personnel and infrastructure of all countries, and that there must be coordination between security and development. For its part, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a dangerous and irresponsible act that will only increase pressure.
Chinese vessel breaks the blockade
According to Reuters, a Chinese tanker under American sanctions passed through the Strait of Hormuz despite the naval blockade imposed by Washington on this strategic point, as shown by shipping data. The vessel, named Rich Starry, appears to be the first to cross the strait and exit the Persian Gulf since the blockade began, according to data from LSEG, MarineTraffic, and Kpler. The tanker and its owner, Shanghai Xuanrun Shipping Co Ltd, have already been sanctioned by the US for transactions with Iran. The Rich Starry is a mid-sized tanker carrying approximately 250,000 barrels of methanol. The cargo was loaded at its last port in Hamriyah, United Arab Emirates. The vessel is Chinese-owned and carries a Chinese crew, according to maritime records.
Wall Street Journal: Saudi Arabia pressures Trump to lift Hormuz blockade and negotiate with Iran
Saudi Arabia is calling on the United States to lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and return to negotiations with Iran, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reports, citing Arab officials. "Saudi Arabia is exerting pressure on the US with the aim of forcing them to lift the blockade and return to the negotiating table," the report states. This is linked to the fact that the blockade could lead to an escalation of the conflict with Iran and cause disruptions to other vital maritime routes. Reuters reports suggest that the US and Iran are likely to return to negotiations within the week, again in Pakistan, though Geneva was also mentioned as a potential meeting site.
Seeking an exit from the war
US President Donald Trump announced that, to achieve a better deal, he is imposing a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. Some commentators speculated that, with the failure to reach an agreement in Pakistan, the United Statesmight be sliding deeper into another "eternal" war—that the talks were merely a prelude to a new and perhaps more dangerous phase of conflict. However, a Washington Post report points out that the deadlock in Pakistan does not necessarily mean a return to war. The blockade is indeed a pressure tactic, but not primarily a military one. Donald Trump has no appetite for further armed conflict. He knows the benefits are limited and the tail risk is high. His goal is to squeeze a heavily weakened Iran in an economic vise, so its leaders choose a different path through a large, comprehensive agreement.
Contacts will continue
The American side estimates that, despite last weekend's deadlock in Islamabad, contacts will likely continue through Pakistani mediation. The destination for Donald Trump remains the "exit." "If you can't solve a problem, enlarge it." This advice, often attributed to President Dwight D. Eisenhower, seems to be Trump's strategy. With the Iranian regime remaining upright after weeks of intense bombing and still holding significant cards in its nuclear program and the ability to disrupt navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, Donald Trump decided to propose what he calls a grand bargain: a large, shiny package of economic incentives—including the lifting of sanctions—in exchange for Iran's complete abandonment of its nuclear and missile programs and its support for proxy allies.
The Iranian who won impressions
The talks in Islamabad began with an expectedly tough stance, as Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf set out their positions. But after many hours of discussion, Ghalibafreportedly impressed the American team as a sophisticated and professional negotiator—and a potential leader of a new Iran. Officials believe that other members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are opening their own channels because they want to participate in the future. This may be wishful thinking, as seen previously in Iraq or Afghanistan.Ghalibaf has been trying for two decades to present himself as a pragmatic reformer. Now, 20 years later, is his moment to prove what he can do.
The 3 scenarios
Today's Iran, despite its aggressive rhetoric, is exhausted, American officials estimate. It is experiencing a military version of a lockdown, with limited economic activity after 40 days of war. Trump now plans to tighten the economic noose even further. A strategy that could be summarized as "Operation Economic Explosive Rage." The Trumpadministration estimates that a ground invasion or military escalation could lead to a quagmire. As critics warn, Middle East wars are easy to start but difficult to end. Donald Trump's staff sees three potential scenarios:
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Regime change
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Transition to a new leadership such as Ghalibaf
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The hardliners of the IRGC attempting to break the blockade or respond militarily. If Iran attempts to exploit its position through military or terrorist attacks, Donald Trump may be forced into the escalation he is trying to avoid. This is the risky balance of the strategy.
The goal
The goal is to "enlarge the pie" while simultaneously increasing economic pressure so that Tehran accepts US terms. The idea is to transform Iran from a "revolutionary movement" into a normal state that modernizes and profits, like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This transition from "idea" to "nation" is what Henry Kissinger described as necessary for regional stability. Historically, such shifts have occurred after wars. The question is whether the world is at such a turning point. Usually, in the Middle East, expectations for such optimistic developments are dashed. And yet, the images from Islamabad—with an American Vice President and an Iranian parliamentary leader discussing a potential deal all night—seemed both impossible and inevitable.
Blockade remains unclear
Trump said that American warships would block passage through the Strait of Hormuz. However, how strictly the blockade would be enforced remained unclear. US Central Command did not comment on the implementation method.Donald Trump, in a post on Truth Social on Sunday, announced an extensive blockade of "all ships attempting to enter or exit the Strait of Hormuz." However, US Central Command suggested a more limited version, saying it would begin stopping all ships entering and exiting Iranian ports.
Revolutionary Guards: This is piracy...
Pakistani officials were determined to continue the talks despite the sudden departure from Islamabad on Sunday. Mediators emphasized that before the collapse, progress had been made on several issues during 21 hours of negotiations, while Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated that "full efforts" are being made to resolve the war. Donald Trump stated that the devastated economy and damage to Iranian infrastructure would force Tehran to back down, asserting that "Iran will not get a nuclear weapon." From the Iranian side, Revolutionary Guard commandersdescribed American naval operations as "piracy" and threatened to target Gulf ports.
No port will be safe
The perception that the regime has survived, despite extensive destruction and the assassination of high-ranking officials, has strengthened hardliners in Tehran, who argue that the attacks only confirm the need for a nuclear deterrent. Israeli leaders, who publicly supported but privately expressed reservations about the ceasefire, threatened to resume attacks. Israeli Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir placed the armed forces on high alert. Meanwhile, Iran warned that if its ports are threatened, "no port in the region will be safe." Analysts estimate that the naval blockade, while militarily feasible for the US, poses serious challenges due to the narrowness of the strait and Iran's ability to use mines, missiles, and drones.
The American Navy cannot sustain it
A prolonged naval blockade of the waters around Iranian ports could strain US Navy operations worldwide, said South Korean expert Yu Jihoon in an interview with CNN. As he noted, at least 15 American warships in the region could participate, but effective enforcement would require even more naval assets and aircraft. As he explained, the blockademust simultaneously involve multiple operations: line control, ship identification and inspection, aerial surveillance, and countering Iranian fast boats or mine threats. A prolonged blockade, requiring a large force of ships and support means, could press the operational capabilities of the American Navy in other parts of the world. "Given that the US Navyalready distributes its operations in the Middle East, the Indo-Pacific, and Europe, the longer the blockade lasts, the greater the burden it may create in other theaters," he noted.
What is the strategy?
The strategic logic of the blockade is to cut off Iranian oil flow and the hard currency revenues that fund its war economy. However, its implementation may have global economic impacts, further raising energy prices and creating a supply crisis. According to experts, the effectiveness of the blockade depends on where and how it is applied, with a likely tactic being the selective seizure of vessels to create uncertainty in maritime transport. At the same time, Washington faces pressure from Asian allies who need Iranian oil, while extending sanctions relief could undermine the blockade itself. China called on all parties to show restraint, warning of a potential destabilization of the global economy. Analysts estimate that the blockade may increase pressure on Iran but simultaneously carries a high risk of escalation, especially due to the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz for global energy trade.
Will the US hit a Russian or Chinese ship with Iranian oil?
If a ship that the Americans claim departed from Iranian ports passes through the Arabian Sea and the Strait of Hormuztoward international waters, and if that ship belongs to a major power like China or Russia, would the United States truly be ready to engage in direct conflict with them? If the US took such an action—seizing or striking such a ship—it would be a move that could lead to wider international escalation involving major powers like China and Russia.
Economist: Trump's Hormuz blockade is a dangerous bet
According to the Economist, "the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz strikes at international law and could lead to a new conflict." When the US and Israel started the war against Iran on February 28, the widespread assessment was that Iran would disrupt navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. However, few predicted that less than two months later, Donald Trump himself would move toward a blockade targeting traffic to and from Iranian ports. This blockade came into effect on April 13. Donald Trump hopes that economic "suffocation" will force Iran to open the Strait, something the bombings failed to achieve. According to the report, this is a dangerous bet that could worsen the global energy crisis and lead to escalation and a new conflict.
Sameh Askar (analyst): Trump sacrifices his Gulf allies for a second time
Analyst Sameh Askar argues that American sanctions in the Strait of Hormuz primarily hit the US allies themselves. As he points out, the American sanctions first affect the US allies in the region, particularly the Gulf countries, emphasizing that Trump "is sacrificing the Gulf countries and their peoples for a second time" and is willing to lead to escalation to avoid defeat. Finally, he mentions that the Iranians know their opponent's capabilities well and may respond with escalation, disrupting US trade routes to Asia passing through the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Oman, the Indian Ocean, and possibly the Red Sea.
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