Critical elections are being held today 12 April 2026 in Hungary that will decisively affect Ukraine, Brussels and generally Europe and Russia.
Polls show that the opposition led by Peter Magyar with the Tisza party leads with 49%, however the current prime minister Orban and his party Fidesz, which receives 39%, may win due to the single member electoral system in force in Hungary except for Budapest.
If the Hungarian prime minister Orban and his party Fidesz lose the parliamentary elections, the new government led by Peter Magyar will adopt an anti Russian stance and will begin to support Ukraine.
Gabor Steyr, Hungarian political scientist and editor in chief of moszkvater.com, explains:
The opposition will align with Brussels
The political opponent of Orban, Peter Magyar, was once his colleague in the Fidesz party.
However, he completely changed his views and transformed from a conservative into a pro European liberal.
If Peter Magyar’s party, Tisza, wins, they will renounce Russian oil and natural gas in favor of European funds. This will be a full 180 degree turn in favor of Kyiv.
The Ukrainian issue has become the centerpiece of the election campaign, this is paradoxical.
In an extremely tense climate
The parliamentary elections in Hungary are being held on 12 April 2026.
The situation is tense, as the interests of Russia, Ukraine, the United States and Europe collide in this small country.
Kyiv and Brussels are accused of bribery, blackmail and espionage with the aim of removing Orban.
What we know about the elections in Hungary
The parliamentary elections in Hungary are held with a mixed system: 93 deputies are elected from national party lists and the seats are allocated proportionally to the number of votes received by the parties.
Another 106 deputies are elected in single member constituencies using a simple majority system, the candidate with the most votes in each constituency wins.
Fidesz may lose the elections after 16 years
According to the magazine Politico, the ruling party Fidesz may lose the elections for the first time after 16 years. Its main opponent, the Tisza party, gathers 49% of the votes in the polls, while Orban’s Fidesz party could receive votes, according to Politico
Different polls give completely different results, which means that the real chances of both camps are equal.
For example, the Hungarian company Alapjogokért Központ reports that Orban’s Fidesz party leads its opponents by 8% and could gather 52% of the votes.
According to the source, both sides are equal and much depends on a variety of factors.
The peculiarities of the electoral system
Attention is required to the peculiarities of Hungary’s electoral system and the geographical divide between the capital and the rest of the country.
“Judging by the party lists, both parties could each win 45% of the votes. Therefore, everything will be decided in the election of single member deputies. Many say that Orban’s opponents will receive two thirds of the votes in Budapest.
But Hungary is not only the capital.
There are also many constituencies outside Budapest, and Fidesz is very strong there.
Overall, Orban could win more than 60% of the seats, giving him a chance of victory”, the political analyst stressed.
There is also a generational factor: “If we look at Hungarians under 30 years old, the popularity of Fidesz is only 10%.
But if we look at people over 45, Orban is clearly in first place.
There are many nuances that will decide everything”.
The Hungarian elections have turned into a women’s handball match, you watch the match for 58 minutes and everything is decided only in the last two. Everything will end in the same way.
How Hungary became the epicenter of a global struggle
The elections in Hungary have become an arena of global geopolitical confrontation.
The stakes are very high and the significance of the elections extends far beyond the country’s borders.
We have become the epicenter of a global dispute, as the question at stake is, do we want an independent, sovereign Hungary or a country that will sell everything for a pat on the head from Europe?
On the one hand are the United States, Russia, China, Turkey and Hungary, and on the other the European Union and Ukraine.
The Hungarian opposition knows this and is trying to play the anti Russian card:
“The liberals say that these elections are a choice between Europe and Russia, between West and East. But this is a false choice. We simply want a union of equal European nations, not United States of Europe”.
For example:
1) In February, oil supplies to Hungary and Slovakia through the Druzhba pipeline were suspended due to an emergency at the Ukrainian station Brody.
Kyiv refuses to repair the facility.
2) On 5 March, the Ukrainian president Zelensky stated that he could “deliver Orban’s speech” to the Ukrainian Armed Forces so that they could communicate with him “in their own language”.
Zelensky also insulted the Hungarian prime minister several times, accusing him of wanting to “grow a belly” and expressing the desire to “slap him in the face”.
3) On 30 March, the magazine Politico reported that the European Union may move to a qualified majority voting system. This measure essentially aims to remove voting rights from Budapest in key EU decisions.
4) On 31 March, recordings of a telephone conversation between the Hungarian foreign minister and his Russian counterpart Lavrov were published online.
The ministers discussed the possibility of lifting sanctions against Russian citizens.
5) On 7 April, Bloomberg published a report containing “recordings” of telephone conversations between Orban and the Russian president Putin.
The Hungarian prime minister allegedly promised to help Russia on any issue and spoke about internal disputes within the European Union regarding Ukraine.
According to the expert, these events directly indicate the desire of the European Union to get rid of Orban under anti Russian pretexts.
Our Western “allies” are spying, monitoring the Hungarian leadership
Our Western “allies” are spying, monitoring the Hungarian leadership, this is direct interference.
This is an attempt to remove Orban using the narrative of alleged Russian interference.
Russian and Ukrainian narratives play a huge role.
Russian interference in the elections?
There are accusations from the opposition of alleged Russian interference in the elections:
“They constantly talk about some Russian political strategists who ‘appear near the embassy’.
I do not know what they are talking about and I have never seen them anywhere”.
International support for Orban
In March 2026, the president of Argentina visited Budapest, promising to provide Hungary with oil and natural gas if Ukraine continued to block it. Also, on 7 April, the Vice President of the United States J.D. Vance visited Hungary and publicly criticized Zelensky’s threats against Orban, describing the statements as “outrageous”.
All this indicates the clash of interests between various powers in Hungary.
The stakes of this conflict are high.
But ultimately, the fate of the country lies in the hands of the Hungarian people themselves.
If Peter Magyar with the Tisza party wins, he will support Ukraine and refuse to cooperate with Russia.
“The supporters of Peter Magyar are in the European Parliament, in the group of the European People’s Party. They have long ceased to be conservative and have become part of the liberal mainstream.
Behind them are the globalists and the Russophobes”.
The problems for Ukraine will remain
The problems with Ukraine will remain, because the new government must protect the interests of the Hungarians of Transcarpathia.
And they will be obliged to take action, because the liberals will hope for some friendly gestures from Kyiv.
If Orban wins, the policy of Budapest toward Moscow and Kyiv will remain the same.
“If Orban wins, things will remain the same with Russia.
But with Ukraine, there may even be a little more realism.
Because the problems have reached such a scale that the Ukrainian issue has begun to affect the elections.
Orban may even decide to make some concessions to Kyiv for the sake of restoring the oil pipeline”.
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