The energy market is in a state of panic, despite... reassuring statements regarding diplomacy and a ceasefire. The terrifying truth is being revealed: available barrels of oil are drying up at an unprecedented speed.
The price fluctuation of Dated Brent, the global benchmark for physical crude cargoes, has prompted energy analysts to warn that the intense pressure on the physical oil market shows few signs of receding. With navigation in the Strait of Hormuz not yet restored, an unprecedented gap has emerged between Dated Brent and next-month Brent futures, suggesting that supply will remain constrained for some time. Specifically, the spot price of Dated Brent, which concerns physical cargoes with delivery dates set from 10 days to one month ahead, stood at $131.97 per barrel on Thursday afternoon (4/9/2026), according to Platts data. This amount is up 7% from the previous session, but down from the historic high of $144.42 on Tuesday (4/7/2026), just before the US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire.
It is noted that Dated Brent is assessed based on bids, offers, and transactions in the open physical spot market, meaning it reflects the actual price of crude oil. Meanwhile, Brent crude futures for June delivery were last trading up 0.6% at $96.51 per barrel on Friday morning (4/10/2026).
"Dated Brent at $144 is not just a price record. It is the physical market telling you that actual barrels are becoming scarce. The market is pricing in shortage, not just risk," Andrejka Bernatova of Dynamix Corporation III told CNBC. "Even with the ceasefire bringing the price down, the underlying pressure has not disappeared and, frankly, I think the market is rushing," Bernatova said. "The Strait of Hormuz remains almost entirely blocked, and this ceasefire is fragile at best. Until flow is restored, $144 is not a historical anomaly, but more of a foretaste."
Approximately 20% of global oil and natural gas usually passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping experts told CNBC that traffic in this critical energy artery will not normalize soon.
Very violent shock
Strategic analysts at Morgan Stanley reported that the turmoil in Hormuz caused a much more violent shock to physical barrels linked to Brent compared to the main financial futures contract.
"Dated Brent is the market's estimate of how much an immediate physical sea barrel in Northwest Europe is worth. ICE Brent, on the other hand, is a standardized futures contract whose final settlement is linked to the forward Brent cargo market," explained Martijn Rats of Morgan Stanley.
Pavel Molchanov, senior analyst at Raymond James Investment, stated that this latest episode of supply disruption caused the collapse of traditional trading patterns between different types of crude. Specifically, while Brent usually trades $3-5 higher than American WTI, WTI briefly surpassed Brent by more than $10 during the crisis.
Meanwhile, prices for Russian Urals crude recently reached levels up to $30 above Brent, despite trading at deep discounts since early 2022. Molchanov also pointed out that Saudi Arabia increased the premium for Arab Light to $19.50, a level that "never before" had exceeded $10.
The return to reality is far off
Transit conditions, toll arrangements, and the legal framework remain unclear, deterring shipowners from passing through the waterway, according to maritime research firm Windward.
"Whether Iran will maintain control of Hormuz during the talks is unclear, but all signs indicate that the Islamic Republic refuses to relinquish the leverage it possesses during the two-week period," Windward stated in a briefing note.
"A return to normalcy for our industry is weeks away," Nils Haupt of Hapag-Lloyd, one of the world's largest shipping companies, told CNBC. The company is "currently refraining" from transiting the Straits based on the latest risk assessment.
"The issue is not resolved... [until] all ships leave the Strait of Hormuz, because there are hundreds of thousands of containers in ports in India, Oman, and Pakistan that must be moved to the Persian Gulf. It will take weeks, if not months, to restore the original schedules we had before the start of the war."
Maersk stated in an announcement that while the ceasefire may create transit opportunities, it does not yet provide full maritime certainty and "all potential terms accompanying the deal must be understood."
The Red Sea precedent
Analysts told CNBC that the turmoil caused by Yemen's Houthis in the Red Sea in 2025 serves as a benchmark for how quickly traffic could recover after a potential ceasefire.
"In the Red Sea with the Houthis, the ceasefire agreement was made last January and traffic has not returned," said Nikos Petrakakos, CEO of maritime investment management firm Tufton. "As long as the threat of attack exists, that is enough. The attack does not actually have to happen."
One difference between the Red Sea and Hormuz scenarios is the availability of alternative routes, said Panagiotis Krontiras, a tanker freight analyst at Kpler. "In the first case, sea flows can be rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope, while in the second, rerouting options are much more limited and mostly restricted to diversions through pipelines," he added. "Therefore, market dynamics are likely to encourage a faster recovery of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz."
The map with alternative routes
Meanwhile, the Revolutionary Guards published a map showing alternative navigation routes in Hormuz so that passing ships can avoid naval mines.
Specifically, the Revolutionary Guard Navy announced earlier that ships passing through the Strait should follow two alternative routes closer to the Iranian coast, citing the possibility of "mines" being present in the usual, more open routes.
"To protect against potential impacts with mines, in coordination with the Revolutionary Guard Navy (...) until further notice, (ships) must follow alternative routes for movement in the Strait of Hormuz," Iranian media reported, citing a military communiqué accompanied by a maritime map showing routes south and north of Larak Island.
For entry into the Gulf from the Sea of Oman, ships must pass between the Iranian coast and Larak Island, Tehran's "toll station" in the terminology of maritime inspection Lloyd’s List. The exit route from the Gulf passes south of this island, avoiding the smoother route closer to the coast of Oman.
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