The lives of millions of people across the Middle East—and the fate of the global economy—will depend on the outcome of the critical talks scheduled to take place tomorrow, Saturday, April 11, in Pakistan between the US and Iranian delegations. The streets of the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, have been emptied due to a surprise two-day public holiday declared to ensure security during the arrival of the American and Iranian delegations for their first talks since the start of the war. The fragile two-week ceasefire that paved the way for the talks is currently holding. However, massive and deadly Israeli strikes against Hezbollah and disputes over whether Lebanon is included in the truce could derail the talks, which may even be canceled before they begin. Officially, Iran maintains that its delegation has not yet traveled to Islamabad, implying it will not attend if America does not uphold the ceasefire terms regarding Lebanon.
Who will participate in the talks?
The talks between Iran and the United States are expected to begin on Saturday morning local time in Islamabad, according to the White House. The American delegation will be led by Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner, son-in-law of President Donald Trump. Tehran has not officially announced its delegation, but some local media report it will be led by the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. A regime insider states that Ghalibaf has emerged as a key interlocutor with the Trump administration throughout the war. However, the Wall Street Journal claims the Iranian delegation will be led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Ghalibaf. Although the Wall Street Journal report asserts the Iranian delegation is already in Pakistan, Tehran officially denies this. Meanwhile, no details are known regarding how these talks will be conducted—whether directly between delegations or through third-party mediators.
What will they discuss?
Given that the two sides do not even seem to agree on what is included in the ceasefire, coordinating the agenda of the talks may prove difficult. Trump has referred to a "10-point proposal from Iran," which he characterized as a "basis for negotiation." However, Iran subsequently began circulating its own 10-point list containing demands that the US could never accept, such as recognition of its control over the Strait of Hormuz, war reparations, and the lifting of all sanctions. Other versions published in state media included the recognition of the country's right to uranium enrichment. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that Trump was referring to a different 10-point plan that was "more reasonable." Simultaneously, Trump and his team have their own 15-point proposal. The plan has not been fully publicized, but it reportedly includes an Iran commitment not to acquire nuclear weapons, the handover of highly enriched uranium, limits on Tehran's defensive capabilities, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The fundamental question now is whether the talks will lead to a compromise or if they will collapse, restarting a war that has already devastated parts of the Middle East and triggered a historic global oil crisis.
What is happening in Lebanon?
The inclusion of Lebanon in the ceasefire is a persistent point of contention that also threatens to upend the weekend talks. Iran has repeatedly stated that the truce covers attacks against Hezbollah, a position mirrored by Pakistan, which helped mediate the deal. However, Israel and the US have stated that the ceasefire does not include Lebanon. On Wednesday, just hours after the ceasefire began, Israel launched the largest wave of strikes on Lebanon since the war started, hitting crowded neighborhoods without warning and killing at least 303 people, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health. The attacks drew immediate global condemnation and fury from Iran. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibafstated on Thursday that Lebanon and Iranian proxies are an "integral part of the ceasefire" and that "time is running out." Criticism of Israel was voiced worldwide, including by European and Gulf nations fearing the truce might collapse before talks even begin. Vance stated there was a "reasonable misunderstanding" regarding Lebanon's inclusion but noted that the Israelis might "need to restrain themselves a bit."
What about the Strait of Hormuz?
The reopening of the critical maritime passage, the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed by Iran for weeks causing chaos in global oil markets, was another part of the deal according to the White House. Yet since the start of the ceasefire, only a few ships have managed to pass through this strategic point. Hundreds of vessels remain trapped in the Persian Gulf with thousands of crew members. Iran halted the transit of tankers through the Strait of Hormuzfollowing Israeli strikes in Lebanon, according to the Fars news agency. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf reiterated this stance, saying that "ceasefire violations entail clear costs and STRONG responses." Vance reiterated Thursday that if Iran does not fulfill its commitments to reopen the Strait, the ceasefire will end. Trump also warned Iran against imposing tolls on tankers in the critical waterway.
Will the talks achieve anything?
Despite the confusion, US officials on Thursday were moving quickly to prepare for negotiations, according to sources familiar with the matter. If Iran chooses to walk away, "it would be foolish, but it's their choice," Vance said. Despite the disagreements, Trump told NBC he is "very optimistic" about a peace deal from the Islamabad talks, saying Iranian leaders seem eager for peace in private conversations. "They're being much more reasonable," he said. "They're agreeing to everything they have to agree to. Remember, they've been defeated. They don't have an army." Iran's public rhetoric is markedly different, with many state media outlets claiming a resounding victory for surviving the US and Israeli assault and bringing Washington to the table. Even if the talks occur, it is difficult to say if the gap can be bridged in a single weekend. According to sources, the weekend meeting is intended to be the first in a series of intensive negotiationsregarding a long-term agreement to end the war.
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