The number of people facing food insecurity could reach levels last seen at the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The planet is facing an unprecedented economic and food "vice," with 2026 evolving into a year of high risk. On one hand, the emergence of an extreme weather phenomenon, the "Super El Niño," threatens to level crops across the entire Southern Hemisphere, causing a shock to the production of essential goods. On the other, the war in Iran and continuous unrest in the strategic Strait of Hormuz have "strangled" the global market for fertilizers and fuel. With reserves of rice, coffee, and sugar already under pressure, analysts warn that the combination of climate collapse and military conflict is creating the "perfect storm" for prices on supermarket shelves.
Warnings from climatologists
Climatologists warn that it appears increasingly likely a planet-warming El Niño phenomenon will take shape in the coming months, with American meteorologists estimating a one-in-three chance for the formation of a "strong" weather event during the October–December period. European climate models show an even higher probability for a very strong or "Super El Niño," although the so-called "spring barrier" means these predictions may be inaccurate.
El Niño—or "the little boy" in Spanish—is widely recognized as the warming of sea surface temperatures, occurring naturally every few years. Such an event is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise by 0.5°C above the long-term average. A "Super El Niño," which is not an official scientific category, is considered to refer to an exceptionally strong phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), when sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific rise at least 2°C above normal.
Food prices
Chris Jaccarini, a senior food and agriculture analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, stated that 2026 is shaping up to be another year in which conflict and climate risks have become a costly reality. "Food prices are being squeezed from both sides: by extreme climate events disrupting production in major growing regions and by a food system that remains dependent on fossil fuels and therefore exposed to spikes in the prices of gas, fertilizers, transport, and packaging," Jaccarini noted. Certain commodities are particularly exposed, with El Niño typically exerting upward pressure on cocoa, edible oils, rice, and sugar. He also cited broader risks for products such as bananas, tea, coffee, chocolate, and soy-fed meat.
The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz
Prices for oil, natural gas, and fertilizers have skyrocketed due to the war in Iran, which severely disrupted supply through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Roughly one-third of the global maritime fertilizer trade passes through there, but shipping traffic has effectively halted following US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran on February 28. Despite the announcement of a temporary ceasefire on Wednesday, experts warn there is no clear path to peace, and the impacts will be lasting. Price increases arrive exactly at the start of the planting season in the US, intensifying fears of lower crop yields.
Global hunger forecasts
Analysis by the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) warned that the number of people with food insecurity could reach levels last seen at the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Specifically, the number of people facing acute hunger could increase by 45 million if the war in Iran continues past June and oil prices remain above $100 per barrel. This forecast would be in addition to the 318 million people worldwide already facing food insecurity. Dawid Heyl of Ninety One expressed strong concern, noting that while he was not as worried about the Russia-Ukraine impact on food inflation, the current situation with Iran is much more serious due to the reliance on nitrogen and fertilizer production. Countries such as India, Australia, Brazil, and Argentina are considered particularly exposed, while the European Union warned that Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Sudan are threatened by severe drought, endangering the main agricultural season.
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