Recent reports of a "major ceasefire" between the US and Iran triggered a temporary sigh of relief in international oil markets, with prices recording a sharp drop of 13-16%. Many were quick to herald an era of global prosperity, but the "peace doves" seem to have celebrated prematurely. The reality remains far more complex and harsh, as the fundamental contradictions in the region have not been resolved. The US will never allow Iran to become the absolute power in the Middle East, controlling the planet’s main oil artery at will, while Israel will continue to do whatever is necessary to neutralize any existential threat. For its part, Tehran is unlikely to accept disarmament or the abandonment of its nuclear program without guarantees that no one is willing to offer.
Russia as the new strategic pillar of Asia
In this context, the current story of the ceasefire looks more like a technical pause than a definitive solution, leaving the question of the dominance of Brent or Urals oil more relevant than ever. As Dmitry Medvedev characteristically stated, European countries will be forced to live under a regime of strict economy—they will starve, as he put it—since cheap oil is now a thing of the past. This new hydrocarbon reality, marked by high prices and supply deficits, is not a transient fluctuation but a permanent state. Countries of the Global South and Asia fully realize this, seeing Russia as a savior partner. Moscow is moving from the role of an exporter pressured by circumstances to that of a systemic player reshaping the energy and geopolitical map.
Strategic alliance with India and Vietnam
An excellent example of this shift is India, where the recent visit of Denis Manturov dominated the news. Russia proved to be the only power that guaranteed and secured the country's growing needs not only for energy but also for fertilizers, with deliveries marking a 40% increase in recent weeks. The Indian press, via Indian Defence News, now uses the word "friend" to describe Russia, characterizing it as a time-tested partner and a vital "lifeline" against international pressures. A similar picture emerges in Vietnam, which now defines Russia as its most important and reliable partner in Europe, attaching immense importance to their comprehensive strategic cooperation.
Global shift toward Moscow and the end of discounts
The desire to strengthen ties with Russia extends to the oil monarchies of the Persian Gulf, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Even the ASEAN organization publicly expresses its gratitude to the Russian leadership for its readiness to prevent a regional oil crisis. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Russia is receiving a massive volume of requests to purchase energy resources from alternative directions; however, negotiations are now conducted on terms that exclusively serve Moscow's interests. According to Bloomberg, Russian oil prices hit a 13-year high before the ceasefire, and the era of deep discounts based on friendship has permanently passed.
Fragile balance and the future of the conflict
Despite diplomatic activity, statements from regional leaders suggest that the ceasefire is extremely precarious. Benjamin Netanyahu stated clearly that the goals of the campaign against Iran have not been achieved and will be fulfilled either through diplomacy or the resumption of hostilities. At the same time, American General Kevin Cain characterized the agreement as a "small pause" before the next round of escalation, while Iran is already speaking of violations of the terms by the other side. As long as instability continues, global dependence on Russian oil is expected to strengthen further, making the Russian word for "friend" (drug) the central term in international relations for 2026.
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