It is becoming clear to many that after securing the war he desired and witnessing its failure, Netanyahu is unlikely to receive a second chance with US support.
In a war without clear winners, the Israeli Prime Minister appears to be the primary loser as he enters a fragile and vague ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran. Following years of threats by Benjamin Netanyahu against Iran, dramatic appearances at the UN General Assembly, controversial files repeatedly presented to the media, and pressure on successive US presidents to agree to a war against Iran, Israel's conflict has proven to be a failure. The assessment of the American intelligence community—that Israeli predictions of regime change and revolution in Iran were "ridiculous"—has been confirmed. The Israeli estimation that the war would last a few days or, at worst, a few weeks, fell far short of reality. Everything went wrong for Israel, and specifically for Netanyahu...
Pressuring Trump to avoid a truce
Even two days ago, according to Israel's Channel 12, Netanyahu was pressuring Donald Trump not to agree to a ceasefire. The American president initially issued threats toward Tehran, but subsequently relented, and according to some reports, sidelined Israel in his decision-making process. "There has never been a political disaster like this in our history. Israel was not even near the table when decisions regarding the core of our national security were made," wrote the leader of the main opposition, Yair Lapid, on X. "The military executed what was asked of it and the public showed remarkable resilience, but Netanyahu failed politically, failed strategically, and achieved none of the goals he himself had set. It will take years to fix the political and strategic damage caused by Netanyahu's arrogance, negligence, and lack of strategic planning."
One of the most serious strategic failures
The leader of the left-wing Democrats party, Yair Golan, also characterized the ceasefire as a "strategic failure" for Netanyahu: "He promised a historic victory and security for generations, and in practice, we received one of the most serious strategic failures Israel has ever known. It is a complete failure that jeopardizes Israel's security for years to come."
Gambling everything on the war
In reality, Netanyahu gambled everything on his war and, having failed to trigger the fall of the theocratic regime, seize Tehran's enriched uranium reserves, or cause a substantial weakening of the state, Israel's international standing—already severely damaged by his actions in Gaza, where he faces accusations of genocide—has taken a hit.
The regime endured
According to a Guardian analysis, in the security sector, despite Trump's statements, the power of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) was bolstered, as Tehran—at least temporarily—achieved its main goal: surviving a months-long offensive by two of the world's greatest military powers. The attacks left a wounded but intact regime with significant military assets, which will likely seek rapid reconstruction to retaliate.
Obsession and arrogance
Netanyahu's obsession with continuing attacks in southern Lebanon appears arrogant, given that Israel's attempt to create a new buffer zone brings its forces into direct conflict with Hezbollah fighters, who have historically proven capable of fighting on their own soil. In this context, Israel's massive airstrikes in Lebanon look like a punitive strike for displacement, as they failed in Tehran.
Criticism from all sides
The impact on public opinion and diplomacy is likely to be even more severe for Netanyahu and Israel. In the US, specifically, the political consensus that had existed since the 1960s is collapsing. Israel's role in pushing Trump toward war with Iran has drawn criticism from both progressives and the Maga far-right, while support for Israel is at historic lows even among Jewish voters.
No objectives achieved
Furthermore, the domestic consequences for Netanyahu in an Israeli election year are grave. Instead of improving the country's security, he will emerge from the war without achieving any of the main goals he promised. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may have passed away, but his hardline son has succeeded him. Tehran's 10-point plan, which Trump stated could serve as a basis for negotiations, appears to include the acceptance of Iran's right to enrich uranium, despite Trump's denials.
Complete failure
For some, such as Haaretz military correspondent Amos Harel, the failure was written into Netanyahu's war plans: "Many weaknesses of the current American administration and the Israeli system under Netanyahu became apparent: a tendency to gamble on baseless hopes, superficial plans, ignoring experts, or aggressive pressure for alignment with political leadership." Israelis will also realize that the past month's conflict was a unique opportunity to conduct a campaign of this scale with full US support. Other hotspots may emerge, but the likelihood of repeating such prolonged hostilities seems slim.
No second chance
Trump hesitated at the most dangerous point of escalation, including the deployment of ground forces, which is extremely unpopular in the US and catastrophic for the global economy. It will be obvious to many that, after securing the war he desired and seeing its failure, Netanyahu will hardly have a second chance with US support. Given that this was the Israeli Prime Minister's primary political argument for years, one wonders: what is his purpose now? "This is the fourth time in a row—in Gaza, once in Lebanon, and twice in Iran—that his boasts of total victory and the removal of existential threats prove to be empty promises," Harel wrote.
Wall Street Journal: Israel extremely dissatisfied with the US
Israel's authorities are extremely dissatisfied with the US approach to organizing the truce with Iran, as Washington did not coordinate the basic details of the agreement with Tel Aviv, according to the Wall Street Journal. "Israeli officials are not satisfied with the terms, including the planned inclusion of Lebanon in the deal, as Israel considers Iran and Lebanon separate spheres," the report highlights. According to a source for the newspaper, US and Israel consultations were limited to a phone call between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu shortly before the truce announcement.
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