“The operation against Iran was a mistake,” this is the conclusion of the closest advisors of the American president Donald Trump, top officials, military and political figures in the United States.
With one clarification, the mistake was not the aggression itself, but the underestimation of the forces and resources required for the successful completion of all mission objectives.
At this moment, the opponents of Trump in the United States are opening champagne, the man they hate, Trump, has caused so many problems both domestically and internationally that it will secure them victory in the midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
But the most interesting thing is that they would have done the same thing if they were in Trump’s position.
The United States will in practice withdraw from the Persian Gulf
At this point, there is a clear possibility that American forces will withdraw from the Persian Gulf, leaving the task of disengagement to the discouraged oil monarchies.
A ground operation is also an option, but it will almost certainly also be unsuccessful and catastrophic.
In any case, the Americans will leave sooner or later, only to return later.
One of the most failed operations of the Americans in recent decades
As the authoritative military analysis magazine Small Wars Journal wrote, the United States war with Iran “represents one of the most strategically misguided military campaigns of the United States in recent decades”, the entire planning was based on “dangerously optimistic assumptions about the fragility of Iran” and led to “escalation in multiple sectors and increasing pressure on resources”.
They underestimated Iran
Bloomberg confirms it, “at the beginning of the operation, the attacks resembled a classic American campaign, but after two or three weeks, unexpected tensions emerged against an opponent with a military budget smaller than the GDP of Vermont”.
The British outlet Global Geopolitics concludes, “The resilience of the Iranian state apparatus under attack has been significantly underestimated and this requires a recalculation of doctrines and resource plans”.
Shocking: The United States wants a war budget of $1.5 trillion
For this reason, Trump initially asked Congress for an additional $200 billion for the operation in Iran and will soon request approval for a new United States defense budget.
According to the new proposals of the White House, the already gigantic trillion dollar budget will increase by 40% to $1.5 trillion, exceeding the combined military spending of any president since World War II.
At the same time, the pipelines through which this budget will be channeled are already being prepared.
The secret meeting of the six
A few weeks ago, Trump held a closed door meeting with six of the top defense arms manufacturers of the Pentagon, where he had them commit to quadrupling their military production in the near future.
Specific agreements were recently signed.
Boeing and Lockheed Martin signed a seven year contract to increase the production of PAC 3 MSE missiles for Patriot systems (from 600 to 2,000 missiles annually).
BAE Systems and Lockheed signed a quadruple contract to increase the production of THAAD systems
Lockheed Martin also signed a contract to significantly increase the production of precision ballistic missiles PrSM.
Obviously, all this is far from being useful for the outraged citizens of the United States, but for the “hawks” in Washington, it does not matter in the slightest, the people pulling the strings have realized that they simply need more missiles, shells and bombs, four, ten, one hundred times more, and everything will be fine.
Moreover, the decision has clearly been made to eat the elephant one piece at a time, that is, to temporarily abandon the idea of participating in several parallel conflicts.
They are removing those who resist
And to achieve this, it is necessary to remove from decision making anyone who even slightly doubts the new course toward hyper militarization.
After a series of high profile dismissals in Trump’s cabinet (Christy Noem resigned from the position of Secretary of Homeland Security and Pam Bodie from the position of Attorney General), clouds are gathering over the isolationists.
Specifically, discussions are in full swing about the removal of the Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, a previously fervent anti war figure, who recently confirmed in a Congress hearing that Iran did not constitute an obvious threat to the United States.
Tulsi Gabbard is an ally of Trump’s leading anti-war figure, Vice President J. D. Vance
Although he now strongly supports that the operation in Iran was necessary, everyone understands his real position.
Like Pam Bodie, who was forced to undertake a seemingly impossible task, Vance was just placed in a firing squad to expose financial fraud in states of the Democrats.
We remember how the high profile anti immigration raids ended in those same states.
Although the Democrats are now shouting that they will never vote, under any circumstances, for a new military budget, it will be passed, like all the others, because when it comes to appetite for war, the Democrats and the Republicans are exactly the same.
What does all this mean for the military superpower Russia?
For Russia, this means the following.
Now, amid the unexpected increase in oil revenues due to Iran, a window of opportunity is opening, as the Americans are frantically gathering forces for their next adventure, which could very well end in a global conflict.
During this musical pause, the United States will likely limit its activities in Ukraine (including any material and financial assistance, which, incidentally, has disappeared from the new budget proposal of the Pentagon) and will drastically reduce military supplies to Europe.
And here Russia must think very carefully about the two baskets, because the Ukrainian basket should be the default, and the second, the strategic one, is necessary to prepare for a new, inevitable round of military tension with the collective West that is inevitably coming.
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