At a time when geopolitical tension is increasing at an alarming pace, the Russian philosopher and mentor of Vladimir Putin, Alexander Dugin, describes the conflict between the United States and Iran in terms that resemble an apocalyptic prophecy more than conventional political analysis.
For Dugin, what is unfolding today is not simply a conflict between states, but a confrontation of worldviews that see the world approaching its final limit.
At the center of this dramatic scene stands Donald Trump, who according to Dugin is trapped in a historical trap from which there is no real escape.
The question, as he argues, is not whether Trump will lose a war against Iran.
The question is how exactly he will lose it, and how great the destruction will be that he leaves behind.
Alexander Dugin
The inevitable collapse of American strategy
Dugin argues that a war against Iran cannot lead to a real victory for the United States.
Iran is not a conventional opponent that can be easily defeated with military power or economic pressure.
On the contrary, it is a state that has built its entire strategy around resistance.
According to Dugin, the forces influencing Trump, particularly the powerful lobby of Israel, are pushing American policy onto a path of no return.
This is a path that resembles a downward course toward an abyss.
The same force that drives the United States toward conflict, according to Dugin, will ultimately lead Trump himself to destruction.
He speaks of a situation resembling mutual self destruction.
The irrational point of conflict
According to Dugin’s analysis, a large part of the strategy of Israel is based on a deeply eschatological perception of history.
At the center of this perception lies the expectation of the Messiah.
All political and strategic moves, he argues, seem to be based on a kind of “promise” of a future event.
If however this event does not occur, if history does not unfold as expected, then the entire structure risks collapsing.
Dugin considers even more extreme the case of Zionism, where politics is interpreted through religious fantasies such as the so called rapture.
In this context, political action is driven by visions that can never be realized, yet continue to guide decisions with global consequences.
Thus, the sequence of “rational” strategic moves leads, according to him, to a final irrational point of conflict.
According to the Russian philosopher, the Iranians rely on something more immediate and more dangerous, decisive resistance.
The leadership that could compromise has already been sidelined.
At the center of power now stand the hardline forces of the IRGC, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
These are people who, according to Dugin, have nothing to lose and no willingness to negotiate.
Their perception is simple, the enemy must be confronted here and now, with every available means.
The strategy of total escalation
In the event of a generalized conflict, Dugin believes that Iran will seek not merely military defense but total destabilization of the global system.
The possible scenarios described include:
1) destruction of the global energy market
2) strikes on maritime transport
3) attacks on commercial fleets
4) destruction of underwater internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz
5) use of low cost naval drones to destroy Western fleets
Such a scenario could trigger the collapse of global trade within a few days.
The global economy, already in a fragile balance, could find itself on the brink of total breakdown.
Trump and his personal crisis
Dugin presents Donald Trump as a leader who is not guided by religious eschatology but by personal ambition.
According to him, Trump believes primarily in himself, in economic power and in high risk market speculation.
However, the Russian philosopher argues that Trump now faces a reality he cannot control.
Political pressure, age and past scandals, especially those related to Jeffrey Epstein, create an explosive mixture.
At a moment of crisis, Trump could attempt to abandon this path.
He could shift responsibility onto figures such as Pete Hegseth and try to distance himself from the conflict.
But such a move would require him to confront the forces that brought him to power.
The dilemma of self destruction
Dugin believes that Trump faces three possible scenarios:
1) To abandon the path of conflict and sacrifice his allies.
2) To continue toward war and collapse politically.
3) To collapse personally under the pressure of the crisis.
None of these scenarios leads to stability.
The moment that will decide humanity
According to Dugin, the most critical factor is one, whether Iran can endure a little longer.
The conflict has reached a point where the global system is approaching collapse.
If one of the two adversaries collapses first, the other will gain time to regroup.
But if both collapse simultaneously, the result could be an unprecedented global crisis.
As if all this were not enough, a third force appears to be emerging, the technological giants of Silicon Valley.
According to recent statements by the head of NVIDIA, so called Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) may already have appeared.
This means that humanity is approaching the point of the so called technological singularity, a point where machines will surpass human intelligence.
Elon Musk had warned about this possibility for years.
The antichrist of technology
The billionaire investor Peter Thiel often speaks about the role of the “Katechon”, a force that delays the arrival of the antichrist.
For Thiel, the antichrist is the globalized elites.
But Dugin argues that artificial intelligence itself may constitute a new, more advanced antichrist.
A world on the brink of apocalypse
The conflict between the United States and Iran is not merely a geopolitical confrontation.
For certain thinkers, such as Alexander Dugin, it represents the point where the following collide:
1) religious eschatologies
2) geopolitical ambitions
3) technological utopias
If all these forces collide simultaneously, the result could be a global crisis that will change the course of human history.
And then, as the most pessimistic voices warn, we may no longer be speaking about politics or strategy.
We may be speaking about the end of an entire era of human civilization.
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