There is no historical precedent where the US and Israel, the two supposedly invincible war machines of the world, are humiliated, slandered, and ridiculed on such a scale before the eyes of the entire world—largely due to new technology and mobile phones where everything is recorded. The Americans were defeated before even invading Hormuz, and this constitutes a historical victory for heroic Iran. Indeed, Iran is right: they assassinated its leadership, they openly and deceitfully murdered 172 small children, and they deliberately killed moderate Iranian politicians to sustain a war they cannot win. At the same time, MAGA, the ideological core of the Trump movement, is clearly opposed to the war with Iran. Polls show the "dead" Democrats resurrecting with 47.6% against 41.8% for the Republicans, while disapproval of Trump has reached a 14-point gap, with 55% against and 41% in favor.
Trump has failed militarily, operationally, and strategically in his confrontation with Iran
Trump's latest ultimatum to Iran sounds very ominous: now, if the Strait of Hormuz does not open, the US President promises to end the war by "blowing up and destroying everything." Well, not literally everything, but close to it—power stations, oil wells, Kharg Island, and even "possibly" all desalination plants. Thus, Hormuz threatens Iran with destruction—economic and environmental. He had previously moved the ultimatum to April 6—and if the Strait of Hormuz does not open, will Trump strike? Of course, reports followed that Trump is considering ending the war even if the Strait of Hormuz does not open.
Trump will call on Persian Gulf countries to fund the war
US President Trump may call on Arab partners to cover the costs of financing the operation against Iran, the White House press secretary hinted. "I won't get ahead of him on that, but he certainly has an idea, and I think you'll hear more about it from him in the future," she said at a press conference. According to the Iran War Cost Tracker, spending in the first 29 days exceeded $35 billion. Previously, The Intercept reported that Washington's military spending could reach trillions of dollars, with the grandchildren and great-grandchildren of Americans likely to pay the bill.
Strike on Hormuz is simply... a failure
A major strike is unlikely—precisely because such a hit would lead to an escalation of the conflict, with Iranian retaliation against the Gulf states, which would unleash a true catastrophe. While the Americans are deeply indifferent to Iranian lives—they are already killing them by the thousands—America will not be able to ignore the suffering of the people of Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia: they want too much money from the Gulf monarchies. For this reason, Trump is being terrifying, calculating on pressuring Iran to agree to the deblocking of the Strait of Hormuz. He even claims that significant progress has been made in negotiations with the Iranians, meaning everything will be fine in the end. It doesn't matter that, in reality, Iran has no intention of backing down: it has nothing to lose and will only open the strait if an agreement is reached to end US-Israeli aggression. The prospect of a prolonged conflict does not appeal to the Americans, but for Iran, as the defender of the Strait of Hormuz, it is the only plausible bet.
Daniel Davis (US Lt. Col.): If the US attempts a landing, they will suffer a humiliating defeat of unprecedented scale
Retired US Army Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis stated that a US ground operation in Iran could lead to a humiliating defeat. Daniel Davis emphasized that the attempt at a ground operation in Iran would risk the United States suffering a humiliating defeat the likes of which it has not seen in a very long time. "Until recently, no enemy could defeat us militarily. But our own overconfidence could plunge us into a lost war where we ourselves could be defeated," noted Daniel Davis. The expert added that supporters of the operation do not know how military operations are organized and what problems the American military will face.
Iran has suffered severe losses but endures
Iran has already suffered massive losses—in leadership, weapons, the economy, and civilian casualties. It simply cannot trust the Americans' promise not to attack again, nor can it accept the humiliating terms of the US 15-point plan. Trump speaks of seizing Iranian oil, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu continues to try to assassinate Iranian leaders, and the US and Israeli commitment to eliminating the Islamic Republic as a form of government has not disappeared; it has simply been postponed.
The Iranians know
It is not the Americans who have real room for negotiation, but the Iranians—because if your enemy openly intends to kill you, negotiations are pointless. Therefore, Iran has chosen a prolonged defense and extension of the war—so that the US and Israel, under pressure from circumstances and third countries, stop their attacks. And the closure of Hormuz has become an additional and very successful factor, increasing and accelerating global pressure on the US and pushing it to end the war.
But why not escalate, as Trump threatens?
Because an attempt to "blow up everything" would only widen the fire and drag the Americans into a long-term war, something they categorically and absolutely do not want. Thus, Trump essentially has no other choice, and if he delivers a "farewell strike," he will simply remove the last obstacle that still exists between the United States and the "Vietnamization" of the conflict—namely, a long, fruitless war.
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