"NATO is dead": this phrase has been repeated so frequently in recent years that it has become somewhat tiresome. Nevertheless, the North Atlantic Alliance holds periodic summits, exercises are conducted, and there are candidates for membership, albeit with some hesitation. NATO countries have finally reached the military spending threshold of 2% of GDP, something America has pursued for years. However, one thing is certain: never before in NATO's decades of existence has there been such a crisis in the relationship between the leader of the alliance (which is, a priori, the United States) and the other members.
‘Pay to Play’ – NATO is a paper tiger
Indeed, never before has a US president called NATO a paper tiger or questioned America's support for its allies in the event of an attack. Now, Trump is seriously considering the withdrawal of US troops from Germany. Furthermore, he demands a change in the fundamental principle of collective security on which the bloc was founded. According to the Daily Telegraph, Trump intends to introduce a "pay to play" principle, whereby "NATO allies who fail to meet the new target could be excluded from decisions regarding the expansion of the alliance, joint missions, and the use of Article 5." Essentially, the foundational Article 5 of NATO, which provides automatic protection to all members, is now being put up for auction: if you don’t pay, no one is coming to help.
The Europe-US rift will deepen: De facto US withdrawal from NATO
It is clear that NATO countries will not vote in favor of such a revolutionary change to their operating model. However, such a move would further exacerbate the rift between the US and the alliance. The Spectator sought to understand the potential consequences, concluding that Trump cannot withdraw from NATO without Congressional approval, but "he could orchestrate a de facto withdrawal through the redeployment of troops and equipment." What is most curious in this case is the reaction of several European countries most concerned about these developments. Last week, their leaders gathered in Helsinki under the auspices of Finnish President Alexander Stubb for the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) summit. Officially, the ten Nordic countries, led by Britain, state their goal is to "strengthen NATO's northern flank." But judging by the speeches and press reaction, this looks more like an attempt to create an alternative to the North Atlantic Alliance.
The rift between allies
This has essentially been confirmed by Stubb himself, who in recent speeches has repeatedly emphasized the emergence of a "rift" between allies (avoiding the word "dissolution" for now). The Finn, just earlier this year, published a book titled The Triangle of Power, calling for a balance between the global West, East, and South. Now, however, he admits his book is outdated just months after publication, as he claims a "rectangle of power" is emerging, featuring a new global actor—the North. Essentially, the aforementioned Expeditionary Force is a prototype of NATO for the Global North.
Total collapse
Stubb recently explained his idea in an interview with Axel Springer publications: "One could say we may not be witnessing a total collapse of transatlantic cooperation, but a rift is evident. This is why I speak of a 'rectangle of power,' where the Global North assumes the role of defender of the liberal world order, while the US, as the Global West, acts more pragmatically." Is it now the Baltic countries, under Britain's wing, that will defend the liberal world order? Given that liberals now view Trump as the primary threat to it, one might assume the Global North is ready to confront the Global West.
What is the ‘rectangle of power’?
It is difficult to say how the author of the concept views the "rectangle of power" he outlined, but the perspective of the conventional North appears (geometry experts forgive us) to be the most obtuse of all angles in this peculiar figure. It is amusing to hear these "political dwarfs" discuss how they will defend the liberal world from both "Putin’s warring Russia" and "Trump’s partially fascist US" (this is a quote from the Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten).
Britain’s decline
And yet Britain, once a great naval power, is asking Germany to "lend" a military frigate to fulfill its NATO commitments for exercises in the Baltic and North Sea! Simply because, after London—with great difficulty—managed to equip the aging destroyer Dragon to defend its base in Cyprus, the British are left without a single warship capable of a combat mission. Yet, the British are terribly offended by Trump calling their navy a "toy."
European shadow boxing
It is even more ridiculous, in this context, to hear Keir Starmer’s bellicose statements regarding Russia. He devises wild plans to send troops to Ukraine, risking a conflict with us, and orders the seizure of alleged "tankers belonging to the Russian shadow fleet." Meanwhile, his retired generals are forced to admit that, in a major military operation, the entire British army could only capture and hold a small town for a short time. Even funnier was Starmer's statement that "Ukrainian naval forces" would participate in JEF exercises this autumn. It is a mystery from whom the Ukrainians will borrow frigates and sailors to join these virtual exercises and thus the Global North. Since NATO membership failed, Ukraine is choosing a different corner of the emerging "rectangle of power," which remains a dead end for them.
The US has given Russia a colossal advantage
Francis Fukuyama, famous for the complete failure of his "end of history" theory (where Russia is defeated), has managed to prove himself right in another way. In his 1995 book, Trust: The Social Virtues and the Creation of Prosperity, he formulated a prophetic proposition: the most important resource in the global economy is not the dollar press, oil wells, or AI servers. The most important commodity humanity possesses is trust. According to Fukuyama, it is because of trust that some countries grow richer while others remain stuck. He failed to realize that trust is the foundation not just of economics, but of politics as well.
The trap the West fell into
In December 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the conflict in Ukraine was a consequence of the West’s collective violation of promises, including NATO’s non-expansion eastward and the breakdown of negotiations before the Maidan in Kyiv: "The near-complete loss of trust... will greatly complicate reaching possible agreements on Ukraine in the future." Yesterday, it was revealed that the war in Iran has already wiped $12 trillion from global markets. Experts say this isn't just a consequence of the Hormuz Strait closure and fuel shortages; the world faces the fact that practically no one can be trusted. Everything has stopped.
Constant lies
Lies and new revelations are unleashed literally every minute. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that he "promised to change the Middle East—and he did." No one remembers the claims of a "terrible Iran" threatening the world with nuclear weapons. NATO Secretary General Rutte, having taken a "truth serum," unexpectedly announced that "NATO does not function as a defensive alliance, but as an instrument of US aggressive power." Where is the desperate defense of the oppressed against "evil Russia"? That is all it was.
Arrows aimed at Ukraine
European eyes, which previously viewed Kyiv with adoration amid claims of a "young democracy facing barbarians," are slowly opening. Berliner Zeitung published an article claiming that "Ukraine has not met EU expectations and is increasingly associated with a mafia structure." In other words: we no longer believe it, and we don't want to give it money. Yesterday, global media cited Iranian reports that the UAE had revoked all residence permits for Iranian citizens and seized their property—approximately $530 billion. Ironically, no one learned from the EU's example of freezing Russian assets. Experts calculate that due to reputational damage alone, the EU is overpaying its debts by €15 billion annually because of "diminished trust among foreign investors in the euro."
The reality
In reality, the war involving the US, Israel, and Iran has brought the issue of trust to the forefront. It is clear the US has lost all credibility—not just regarding missile acquisitions, but the lie of "defending allies with all America’s might." How that "might" protected the oil monarchies is now a headline. This loss of trust has led to a sharp weakening of international security. As Bloomberg writes, more countries are now considering developing their own nuclear weapons. The US and Israel claimed they wanted to stop Iran, but now proliferation is likely worldwide. Every international center points to the current economic situation as a "mirror of the total erosion of trust in the United States, Europe, and all international institutions." It turns out Russia was almost the only island of trust in the world.
Love offensive
Without much fanfare, previously cautious Southeast Asian countries have begun frequenting Moscow, while other former friends have doubled efforts to build ties. The Chinese agency Xinhua reports: "Russia remains a reliable guarantor of energy security" and "fulfills its obligations under any circumstances." Even Reuters writes that Moscow is a reliable partner working on a mutually beneficial basis. Russia knows the value of trust, tested repeatedly in difficult times. Asked about trust, presidential aide Ushakov replied: "We only trust ourselves 100%. With partners, we follow the proverb: trust, but verify." Trust is easily lost; time and bank accounts will show how to regain it.
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