The Strait of Hormuz has transformed into the grave of the global economy. With the flow of tankers having plummeted by 97%, Iran has imposed a new, nightmarish reality: tolls for safe passage that in some cases have reached $2 million per ship. At the same time, energy cargoes worth $107 billion remain trapped and are effectively "rotting" in idling tankers.
The warning from JP Morgan is shocking, as analysts point out that the "progressive shock" that began in the East is now threateningly approaching the West. If Hormuz does not reopen, they warn that oil prices could soar to $200 per barrel.
Hormuz transits down 97% in one month
The sharp turn of the Strait and the mountains on the Iranian side offer direct visibility for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to target passing vessels. "It is the least 'straight' strait there is," stated Tom Sharpe, a former British Navy commander. "When you transit, the threat comes from everywhere."
Before the US and Israeli attack on Iran, approximately 135 ships transited the waterway daily. However, following the initial US-Israeli strikes on Iran, traffic has decreased dramatically. Between March 1st and 25th, there were only 116 transits, marking a 97% drop compared to the same period in February, according to S&P Global.
$2 million tolls per ship
The ships that successfully made the transit are primarily linked to Chinese, Indian, or Gulf state shipowners. Several were ships of the "dark fleet" that had been under sanctions by Western powers for trading Iranian oil. Some vessels have paid up to $2 million to Iran to ensure safe passage, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence and a source familiar with a shipowner whose vessel made it through.
Alaeddin Boroujerdi, a senior member of the Iranian parliament, stated on Sunday that every ship passing through pays a $2 million fee. "A new regime is being implemented in the waterway," he said. The approval process involves state-to-state negotiations with Iran through embassies, according to Martin Kelly of EOS Risk Group. The ship then receives a code, which it broadcasts on VHF Channel 16 as it approaches. Simultaneously, Iranian authorities check the ship's documents, the destination of the cargo, and the nationality of the crew.
Revolutionary Guards insist Hormuz is closed!
Nevertheless, according to Iranian media, three ships of different nationalities were expelled on Friday morning (March 27, 2026) from the Strait of Hormuz by the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC). The Fars news agency denied that the Strait is open to any ship, declaring that the waterway "is closed and any transit will be met with harsh measures."
"The movement of any ship 'to and from' ports in regions that are allies with the Israeli and American enemies is prohibited, regardless of destination," Fars reported, citing the navy.
JP Morgan: A "progressive" shock
Analysts at JP Morgan warn that the disruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz over the last four weeks will trigger a "progressive" shock to global supply, which will spread from East to West, with most regions worldwide expected to be affected by April. According to the American investment house, the global oil system is shifting "from a flow shock to a stock exhaustion issue."
The report showed that the last tanker exited the Strait on February 28, the same day the US and Israel launched military strikes against Iran. Since then, traffic through the waterway has essentially stopped, despite Iran adopting a "carefully calibrated strategy" of allowing certain vessels to pass.
Analysts at JP Morgan pointed out that the decisive factor of the impact is not just volume but also time, as the duration of voyages "sets the clock." Markets will witness an escalating supply disruption unfolding sequentially rather than simultaneously—spreading westward, determined by shipping times and with uneven absorption of shocks by regional reserves.
Asia: Particularly dependent on crude oil and refined products from the Persian Gulf, it is already feeling the pressure as cargoes sent before the Strait's closure have been exhausted. Shipments take 10 to 20 days to reach Asia, arriving first in India and then in Northeast Asia.
Southeast Asia: Demand is expected to fall by approximately 300,000 barrels per day in April. If the release of strategic reserves remains limited, losses could exceed 2 million barrels per day in May and approach 3 million in June.
Africa: It is expected to be the next region to face the shock in early April, with potential demand losses of up to 250,000 barrels per day.
Europe: It will begin to feel the effects in mid-April, but the shock will be shaped more by rising costs and competition with Asia than by direct shortages.
US: Due to longer shipping times, deliveries may stop around April 15. However, due to significant domestic production, immediate physical shortages are unlikely in the short term. The impact will be reflected primarily in rising prices.
Oil at $200
Furthermore, strategic analysts at Macquarie note that there is a 40% probability of a prolonged conflict lasting until June, in which case oil prices could reach $200 per barrel and US gasoline prices could hit $7 per gallon.
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