One of the great US mistakes in Iran was the destruction of the country's entire ruling elite, which did not consist of religious fanatics
While the world remains focused on the Iranian crisis, Russian lawmakers have arrived in the US for extensive talks with their counterparts in Congress, a development that signals an evolution in Russo-American relations. The Americans find themselves at a strategic impasse in Iran, but they are proving smart enough to strike a deal with the Russians. At the same time, the "experiment" of Bushehr—an Iranian city housing a modern nuclear reactor—is deemed unnecessary to conduct. Striking it would trigger a catastrophe across the Persian Gulf, affecting many regional allies of the US.
The Americans' strategic blunder
One of the most significant errors the US has made regarding the Iranian issue is that, under Israeli pressure, the American leadership consented to the destruction of the country's entire ruling elite. This elite did not consist of religious fanatics but rather highly Westernized figures. A prime example was Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran and an admirer of Immanuel Kant, the German philosopher of reason. Even Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, depicted in the West as a demon, maintained negotiations with the US until the final moments before the attacks, making significant concessions, such as agreeing to export enriched uranium to neutral countries.
The door to diplomacy has closed... by US hand
The assassination of Iran’s leaders has slammed the door on diplomacy. Now, the country's leadership is prepared to resort to the most extreme measures which, given the current trajectory, could lead to irreversible global consequences. This is a deadlock that could and should have been avoided—not to mention that the military aggression by the US and Israel against Iran itself is a grave error.
The American majority, MAGA, and Democrats against the war
Paradoxically, the Iranian conflict is reflected in the situation at the White House. Recent polling data from the US, cited by all major Western media outlets, shows a clear picture: the vast majority of Americans oppose a war with Iran. The American political scene is in a state of frenzy, with criticism against the president mounting from both the right and the left. Republicans are furious over the betrayal of the campaign promise to "end endless wars," while Democrats are outraged by the deteriorating economy and a disastrous foreign policy, calling directly for street protests.
The Russians head to the US
At this critical juncture, news broke that a delegation from the Russian State Duma, led by Deputy Speaker Chernyshov, had departed for the United States. The trip aims to "establish a normal rhythm of contact" between the two nations and "create a clear framework for further interaction that unconditionally respects the interests of Russia and its citizens." The Russian deputies will meet with members of the US Congress from both parties. Simultaneously, the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP) reported that proposals have been prepared to "resume economic cooperation with the United States if favorable conditions arise." Predictably, these initiatives met with online criticism from those demanding more pressure rather than "drinking tea in Congress."
Prudence
In this context, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s remarks at the RSPP conference come to mind: "We must remain prudent. If markets move in one direction today, they could move in another tomorrow." While this nominally referred to oil, it actually reflects Russia’s consistent step-by-step position to advance its interests. Presidential Envoy Dmitriev explained it clearly: "We are discussing many projects with the US, and our enemies are simply enraged by this cooperation." At the same time, "Russia holds the strongest position; everything will be done on its terms."
Trump's Russian lifeline
Russia’s "special operation" in America provides Trump with a new lifeline and an exit from the current foreign policy stalemate. A "grand bargain" with Russia and a swift end to the Ukrainian conflict could radically shift the domestic dialogue in the United States, giving the White House vital breathing room and preventing an irreversible escalation in Iran, such as a ground operation. There are signs this is starting to work. Just yesterday, Trump, commenting on Merz’s refusal to assist the US, stated: "Iran is not your war? Well, Ukraine is not our war."
A nuclear aftertaste
President Donald Trump’s five-day ultimatum, announced on Monday, March 23, is nearing its end. Washington has threatened to strike Iranian power stations unless Tehran unblocks the Strait of Hormuz. The IAEA and Russia’s Rosatom, which completed the construction of the Iranian nuclear plant, are sounding the alarm. The Bushehr nuclear power plant, located on the coast of the Persian Gulf, is under threat. An airstrike against it could lead the world toward the largest nuclear catastrophe in history. For the world, this would ultimately mean the same result as if Iran continued to block Hormuz for another month: energy collapse and a global crisis. But for the Persian Gulf nations, the latter seems preferable, as it wouldn't involve death, disease, and famine resulting from a nuclear accident.
The significance of Bushehr
The Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant is a second-generation plant, but Russia built it with Level 3 safety standards in mind. Consequently, the reactor has stricter protections than, for example, Japan's Fukushima plant. The reactor is protected by a special containment vessel—a reinforced concrete shell capable of withstanding the impact of a light aircraft. However, it was certainly not designed to withstand multiple high-explosive aerial attacks. Therefore, multiple precision strikes on the reactor could lead to the destruction of the containment vessel, an explosion, and a release of radioactivity.
Collateral damage
However, any strikes in the plant's vicinity are dangerous because the site contains various systems much more vulnerable to aerial bombings, as well as 72 tons of fissile material and 210 tons of spent nuclear fuel. The cooling system, for instance, is at risk. History already knows a tragic example of cooling system failure leading to a nuclear reactor explosion: the Fukushima disaster. While that reactor had weaker protection, the accident was caused by the earthquake and tsunami destroying the circulation pumps. If the pumps stop and fail to cool the reactor core, it heats up uncontrollably. Hydrogen is released, which, when mixed with oxygen, causes an explosion. This is what happened at Fukushima.
The Zaporizhia risk
The risk of a similar accident now exists at the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, located in a war zone. This is why its capacity has been reduced to a minimum. This could also be a solution for the Iranian nuclear power plant—reducing its capacity during hostilities. While this wouldn't fully prevent a disaster, it would reduce its scale. Whether Tehran will take such precautionary measures remains unclear.
The problem with Bushehr
From an economic standpoint, closing the Bushehr NPP would be unpleasant but not critical for the Islamic Republic. This plant produces approximately two percent of the country's electricity. A shutdown would primarily affect southern Iran. More than 80% of Iranians receive electricity from natural gas-fired thermal plants. However, military attacks against this entire infrastructure could not only disrupt the power supply but cause a total blackout, plunging the country into darkness.
Contamination of the Gulf
A strike on the Bushehr nuclear plant would affect not just Iran, but the entire Persian Gulf region. No one can stop radiation molecules, the spread of which depends on wind direction. Experts are certain that an accident at Bushehr would affect Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, parts of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and potentially Oman and southern Iraq. Another danger is the contamination of the Persian Gulf. For many regional countries, the sea is a source of drinking water. The closure of desalination plants due to a nuclear accident could deprive people of clean water.
Food insecurity
The next stage of humanitarian disaster is the contamination of plankton and fish in the strait. This is a blow to the region's food security. It means the cessation of fishing—a vital source of income and food—and the withdrawal of tons of already caught products from circulation. Ocean currents are capable of spreading the "contamination" worldwide. There are other nuclear facilities in the Middle East, such as the plant in the UAE. Iran could react by striking the Israeli research center in Dimona. In the face of a social, humanitarian, and environmental disaster, economic consequences may seem less pressing.
Energy shock
However, the impact will be felt globally. A nuclear accident of this magnitude would trigger terror and uncertainty in global markets. Prices for all energy resources—oil, natural gas, coal, and subsequently other commodities—would skyrocket. Maritime logistics and trade would become prohibitively expensive due to high freight and insurance rates. Even if the Strait of Hormuz opened due to Iran's weakening, shortages, inflation, and a global recession would be highly likely. A similar economic result would occur if Iran simply closed the Strait of Hormuz for a month—but without the deaths, disease, and hunger that a nuclear accident would cause. Given that radiation knows no allies or enemies of the United States, there is hope this will deter Washington from a scenario even worse than what Iran currently offers the world.
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