Staggering consequences face businesses from "unfriendly" countries that exited Russia, as they lost over $610 billion in revenue and at least $16 billion in net profits during the 2022–2025 period. Although they had earned over $280 billion in 2021 alone, their annual revenues over the following four years were reduced by an average of $153 billion per year. The 100 largest corporations recorded total losses of $348 billion in revenue and $16 billion in net profits within the Russian market over four years. In contrast, businesses from "friendly" nations doubled their assets and revenues, which exceeded $42 billion in 2024.
Sanctions and operational obstacles
The estimate of $600 billion in losses is considered realistic by Eduard Voitenko, CEO of Baikal Lobridge. However, as he noted, many foreign companies lacked a sufficient local presence, meaning that international sanctions would have significantly restricted their activity regardless. Vladimir Yeremin, a senior researcher at the Russian Presidential Academy, highlighted that reduced investment, falling demand for durable goods, supply chain disruptions, difficulties in cross-border payments, as well as the risks of nationalization and secondary sanctions, made continuing business operations under normal conditions impossible.
The Russian market remains attractive
Despite the losses, the Russian market is still considered attractive for a potential return due to a familiar business environment and predictable demand, according to Dmitry Plotnikov of Yakov and Partners. If a significant portion of sanctions is lifted and the geopolitical situation stabilizes, Western companies may actively return, noted Voitenko, revealing that requests for evaluating return scenarios have already been made. "Businesses are making the necessary preparations to return as soon as possible when restrictions are lifted," he stated, pointing out that Russia possesses vast resources and a highly profitable market in many sectors.
Stronger competition and barriers to entry
However, returning will not be easy. According to Stepan Zemtsov, the departure of foreign firms bolstered the development of domestic production in Russia. Local enterprises are now stronger, a fact that intensifies market competition and increases pressure on foreign companies that may seek to return, as noted by Plotnikov. As he concludes, Western firms will either have to prove their value under the new conditions or accept a permanent loss of market share and profits.
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