Europe's energy strategy has received a terminal blow amidst the escalating conflict in the Middle East. The push for decoupling from Russia, once presented as the only way forward, is collapsing under the specter of a global energy blackout. With Qatar halting LNG production due to Iranian attacks and energy prices skyrocketing within 48 hours, Brussels is facing its most painful admission of the decade: the blockade on Russian energy is returning like a boomerang. Indeed, Norway’s Energy Minister said it clearly: the war in Iran will reopen the debate within the EU regarding Russian gas. Under the weight of these developments, American crude (WTI) is up 7.15% at $76.31 and Brent is up +7.81% at $83.81. At the same time, natural gas is moving at dizzying speeds, with the price increasing by 40% to 62.1 euros.
The revelation from Norway
The impact on energy flows from US and Israeli military strikes on Iran, as well as Iranian drone and missile launches against its neighbors, could reopen the debate in the European Union regarding the ban on Russian gas imports, Norway's Energy Minister stated. European gas prices jumped 75% this week, reaching multi-year highs.
"The EU was very clear that it wants to free itself from Russian oil and gas, but the events of the last three or four days have also been difficult," said Norway's Energy Minister, Terje Aasland, at a conference in Oslo. "With the geopolitical situation we see now, I believe the debate will be revived," Aasland stated. European Union countries last month gave final approval for a ban on gas imports from Russia—their former top supplier—by the end of 2027, about four years after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. Norway is the largest gas producer in Europe, covering about 30% of demand, while also supplying about 20% of the continent's oil.
A senior official of Iran's Revolutionary Guard stated on Monday (March 2, 2026) that Iran will fire upon any ship attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, at the southern end of the Gulf.
QatarEnergy halts LNG production and related products
"Due to military attacks on QatarEnergy's operating facilities in the industrial cities of Ras Laffan and Mesaieed in the State of Qatar, QatarEnergy has halted the production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and related products," the QatarEnergy announcement stated. With the world's second-largest LNG exporter—after the US—currently out of the supply market, concerns in Europe and Asia regarding gas supply for the remainder of the winter season have intensified. Officially, the heating season ends on March 31, but Europe will need many cargoes during the spring and summer to replenish gas stocks, which have been depleted to their lowest level in years.
This winter, stocks in European gas storage facilities decreased at the fastest rate in the last five years, amid below-average temperatures that led to increased demand for heating and electricity. According to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, the fullness of EU gas storage facilities was estimated to be just 30% on March 1. With Qatari supply out of the market and about 20% of global LNG trade passing through the—now de facto closed—Straits of Hormuz in the Middle East, competition between Europe and Asia for LNG supplies is expected to intensify, pushing prices to higher levels.
Dramatic reduction in stocks
Despite the fact that the timeline of Qatar's disruptions remains unclear, major gas consumers and storage managers in Europe must quickly decide how to prevent the risk of further gas depletion without engaging in market panic that could drive global LNG prices even higher. The problem is that, with gas stocks already at multi-year or historic lows, many of Europe's top consumers may have no choice but to increase purchases, even if the cost of gas continues to rise.
Natural gas stocks in Germany—Europe's largest gas consumer—started March at only 27% of capacity, compared to the average of 64% for the same period since 2023, according to LSEG data. Gas stocks in the Netherlands—home to the main European gas trading hub—are at just 10% of capacity, compared to about 48% on average in early March. Italy—Europe's second-largest gas consumer—currently has stocks at about 50% of capacity, much better than most northern states, but still below the average of 60% in early March.
Overall, European stocks in key markets are currently about 30% full, compared to nearly 54% in early March. This means that almost all major gas consumers in the region are under pressure to replenish these stocks in the future, even in the face of increased global competition for available supplies and already rising prices.
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