An earthquake in the oil market was triggered by the strike on a Saudi Aramco refinery at Ras Tanura, as this development came amid a “lockdown” at the Strait of Hormuz, creating an explosive cocktail of instability. As production in the world’s top oil-producing country, Saudi Arabia, takes a critical hit and the most important maritime artery for crude transport is “sealed,” markets are bracing for an energy shock that threatens to send prices soaring and overturn decades of geopolitical balances.
The price of US crude (WTI) has surged to $72.17, up 7.68%, while Brent stands at $78.73, gaining 8.04%.
The Iranian strike on Aramco
Saudi Arabia’s state television reported that the Ras Tanura refinery near Dammam was temporarily shut down after a drone attack.
According to initial information, the attack took place by drone on the morning of Monday (2/3/2026) and caused a small-scale fire at the facilities. The fire was brought under control shortly afterward, while authorities spoke of limited damage, with no reports of casualties.
Ras Tanura constitutes a key link in the kingdom’s oil production and export chain, as it operates as a central refining and export hub on the country’s eastern coast, in the Persian Gulf. Any disruption to its operation has the potential to affect global crude supply, especially at a time of heightened geopolitical instability.
?#LATEST — Unconfirmed reports claim Iranian drone strikes on Aramco's oil facilities in Saudi Arabia pic.twitter.com/UfBDZThTk4
— Türkiye Today (@turkiyetodaycom) March 2, 2026
Following a wave of Iranian strikes on critical infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, including the drone attack on the giant Ras Tanura refinery, and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the specter of oil at $150 per barrel has ceased to be a “black swan” theory and has turned into a real possibility.
The Strait of Hormuz constitutes the world’s most sensitive choke point. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), 20 to 21 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products pass daily through this narrow passage.
“The Strait of Hormuz accounts for approximately one fifth of global oil consumption. Uncertainty around the closure will continuously push prices higher,” said Anup Garg, Director of WOCE. For Asian giants such as India, China and Japan, Monday began with Brent jumping 13% to $82.37, while US crude (WTI) rose by more than 8%.
Analysts sound the alarm
Goldman Sachs: Analysts warn that the “safety margin” has evaporated.
A disruption at the Strait of Hormuz could send prices to $120 to $150.
A one-month disruption could increase LNG prices in Europe and Asia by 130%.
JPMorgan: Although it had forecast an average price of $60 for 2026, historically such events lead to a 76% increase from onset to peak.
If the passage remains closed for 25 days, major producers may be forced to halt production entirely, as storage facilities would fill up.
Citigroup: The bank raised its short-term Brent forecast by $15. Max Layton, head of commodities research, states that if regional infrastructure is systematically targeted, prices will surge to $120 per barrel.
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