Sweden's 'suicidal' gamble: Experts warn of chaos if French and British nukes hosted on Swedish soil

A Russian military analyst has characterized the ongoing discussion regarding the potential deployment of British and French nuclear weapons on Swedish territory as "suicidal" for the country. Alexander Stepanov, a military expert at the Institute of Law and National Security of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, warned that such a choice could lead the kingdom into uncontrollable escalations.

In an interview with TASS, commenting on a recent statement by Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson that his country is discussing the expansion of the British and French nuclear umbrella, Stepanov emphasized that Stockholm is "assuming the highest possible level of responsibility for the future of the country and its population."

Escalation scenarios and nuclear deployment

According to the analyst, such a political course is reckless and largely suicidal, as it can lead to unpredictable scenarios of escalation. Stepanov noted that Sweden could deploy newly introduced long-range cruise missiles with nuclear warheads, which would be carried by French Rafale fighters or Swedish Gripen jets.

At the same time, the possibility of deploying British submarines with ballistic missiles in Swedish waters is also being examined, according to his assessment. In the same context, the analyst estimated that Finland could also become the next NATO member state to host Alliance nuclear weapons, possibly under the American Nuclear Sharing program, especially following the decision to purchase 64 F-35 fighters.

A 'nuclear fist' in Northern Europe

Stepanov argued that such moves place a heavy burden on strategic stability and will force Russia to revise its foreign policy priorities and its strategic nuclear deterrence strategy against countries that host such weapons. "De facto, a North European 'nuclear fist' is being formed, aimed at the priority projection of threats against Russia," the Russian military analyst concluded.

The background

The Swedish authorities have launched preliminary talks with the United Kingdom and France regarding the deployment of nuclear weapons belonging to European NATO countries on Swedish soil. Although there are currently no specific proposals or timelines for this ambitious—and extremely sensitive—plan, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson confirmed that Stockholm is already in dialogue with London and Paris.

Furthermore, Kristersson mentioned that France has shown a willingness to discuss the deployment of its nuclear weapons in other countries as well. At the same time, London confirmed that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer discussed the concept of a "nuclear umbrella" with his Swedish counterpart, under which nuclear powers could commit to protecting allies who do not possess nuclear weapons.

According to the British newspaper The Telegraph, although Sweden is technically covered by the NATO nuclear umbrella due to its membership in the Alliance, the negotiations with Paris and London clearly demonstrate Stockholm's intention to reduce its dependence on the United States. At the same time, amid growing doubts about the reliability of American guarantees under Donald Trump, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently expressed Germany's desire to join the Anglo-French "nuclear umbrella."

Meanwhile, the head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, announced the end of the old model of relations between the United States and the European Union, calling on Europe to adapt immediately to the new reality of weakening transatlantic ties. These developments highlight a profound shift in the European security doctrine, with nuclear deterrence returning dynamically to the forefront—this time without the absolute guarantee of Washington.

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