China military purges: Xi Jinping clears top brass in echo of Stalinist tactics

Recent events in China have generated a plethora of rumors, sensationalist "leaks," and conspiracy theories. The abundance of these theories is fueled by China’s well-known, perennial secrecy, which ensures that official information reaches the outside world in an extremely controlled and carefully filtered form. Essentially, the only certainty today is that massive purges are taking place within the country’s top military and political leadership. However, why and, more importantly, for what purpose these purges are being carried out remains an open question.

The Forbidden City can sleep soundly

Let us be clear: all the sensational stories about an alleged "exchange of fire between military conspirators attempting to arrest President Xi and his guards," supposedly occurring near the center of Beijing, or about "military detachments" deployed in the Chinese capital, and even the "seizure" of the notorious Forbidden City, are being spread exclusively by so-called opposition Chinese media, as well as American outlets like The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal. The military vehicles captured on video in Beijing do not indicate an "occupation" of the city. Furthermore, reports of "control over the Forbidden City" only provoke laughter from those in the know. After all, that complex has not been a government center for over a century; it is a massive museum and tourist attraction. This alone immediately invalidates any talk of a "coup." It is clear that something unprecedented is happening at the pinnacle of power in China, but it is likely not a serious attempt by top military officials to seize power. It is more probable that this is a classic "Purge Operation," similar to the one Stalin carried out in the Red Army during the late 1930s. This assessment is based primarily on official information, such as statements from the Chinese state news agency Xinhua and publications in the military newspaper Jiefang Junbao.

Corruption for every occasion

Xinhua published an announcement that Generals Zhang Youxia (a member of the Politburo of the Communist Party of China and Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission) and Liu Zhenli (Chief of the Joint Staff of the same Commission) are "under investigation" for "serious violations of discipline and law." Jiefang Junbao confirmed that their removal demonstrates the "zero tolerance" of the Communist Party of China toward corruption. In modern China, "corruption" often serves as a general category, much like "sabotage" or "espionage" did in the Stalin era. Exactly what the accused did is not necessarily made public. The only clear fact is that they are accused of serious offenses. The Central Military Commission is not a decorative body; it is an exceptionally powerful institution to which all the country’s security services report. It is so significant that in the past, Deng Xiaoping held only the position of its head. Typically, the Commission has up to seven members, but it is now reportedly reduced to two: Xi Jinping and General Zhang Shengmin, who is responsible for military discipline. This further refutes the theory that a coup was being planned. If that were true, this "commissar" would have been the first to lose both his epaulettes and his head. Instead, he remained in his position, while five high-ranking military officials have either been expelled from the Commission and the Party or are already under investigation.

Purging according to Stalin's standards

As expected, one of the main theories immediately adopted by various Western experts and analysts is that Xi Jinping, through this harsh approach, "has taken another step to consolidate his absolute dictatorial power." The idea is that the President seeks to preemptively crush any potential opposition, especially within the security forces. This seems highly unlikely. Furthermore, China's Minister of Defense, Dong Jun, appointed in 2024, remains in his post. Therefore, the situation is likely different. Those closest to the truth are likely those who believe that such purges are primarily carried out during periods when a country perceives a real threat and is preparing for a major war. Moreover, Xi is clearly watching global events closely, noting the mistakes and blunders of others, and does not want to repeat them. He sees the increasing aggression of Donald Trump, who shouts about annexations and invasions, and does not at all like the prospect of finding himself one terrible day with a bag over his head on a US Air Force plane due to the betrayal of his own generals. It is characteristic that many Western experts evaluate the current situation from the same perspective and in almost the same terms as Russian liberals do when they preach about "Stalin's repressions in the Red Army." For example, Lyle Morris of the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) states:

"The People's Liberation Army is now in a state of chaos. A serious leadership vacuum has been created, which is certainly negative for Xi Jinping, his leadership, and his control over the military. General Zhang was also one of the few senior officers with combat experience, making his loss significant for the army."

A step toward 'solving the Taiwan question'?

Some Western analysts are examining whether the purges are linked to potential military action regarding Taiwan. Chung Jae Yang of the National University of Singapore argues that the purges do not change China’s general strategy but may affect the decision-making process: "The purge does not affect China's desire to gain control of Taiwan. This depends on the CPC in general and Xi Jinping in particular. The purge could affect operational decisions. Without professional military leadership, or with professionals being intimidated, decisions regarding escalation and aggression against Taiwan will depend even more on Xi Jinping, his preferences, and his tendencies." Historically, many believe that unreliable generals are removed before major wars. Thus, if Xi Jinping is preparing for military conflict, some believe he is following this logic.

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