At a time when Greece is committing energy suicide by purchasing expensive American liquefied natural gas to replace Russian gas, India is demonstrating an alternative path. New Delhi is turning its back on the US and its LNG exports by sealing a massive agreement with the United Arab Emirates.
Strategic shift to alternative partners
Specifically, India and the United Arab Emirates have agreed to double their bilateral trade to $200 billion by 2032. This move underscores New Delhi's strategic shift toward alternative partners as a trade agreement with the United States remains uncertain. Following an intensive three-hour meeting on Monday in New Delhi, UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi confirmed the strengthening of ties, with state-owned companies from both nations signing a ten-year liquefied natural gas supply agreement.
The $3 billion deal with ADNOC
Under the agreement, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), the UAE's state-owned firm, will supply LNG worth up to $3 billion over a 10-year period starting in 2028 to India's state-owned Hindustan Petroleum Corporation. With this deal, India becomes ADNOC's largest LNG customer and will account for approximately 20% of its sales by 2029, according to a company announcement. This development decisively strengthens India's long-term energy security during a period of global geopolitical instability.
Strategic convergence between New Delhi and Abu Dhabi
"It was a productive visit in terms of its results," stated Harsh Pant, Vice President of Studies and Foreign Policy at the Observer Research Foundation, speaking to CNBC. As he noted, India-UAE relations have evolved to such an extent that frequent, high-level contacts are now taken for granted. Bilateral trade reached $100 billion in the 2025 fiscal year, while the two countries have already signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) since 2022. The UAE represents India's third-largest trading partner after the US and China and is home to approximately 3.5 million Indian nationals.
American tariffs accelerate the shift
The strengthening of ties with the UAE comes at a critical juncture, as Indian exports to the US are under intense pressure following Washington's imposition of 50% tariffs as of August 2025. According to Harsh Pant, even if a deal is eventually reached with the US, there is no guarantee that "Donald Trump's unpredictable stance will disappear." This exact factor, as he emphasizes, is pushing India to accelerate the completion of trade agreements with other countries. Already, following the American tariffs, New Delhi has concluded trade deals with the United Kingdom and Oman, while announcing that it will sign a similar agreement with New Zealand in the first half of 2026.
The message to Trump
Behind the numbers and energy contracts, the India-UAE move broadcasts a clear geopolitical message: India does not intend to remain a hostage to a volatile trade relationship with the United States. Instead, it is investing in multidimensional alliances, shielding its economy and energy sufficiency in a world that is becoming increasingly fragmented.
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