So, the incredible year 2025 is coming to an end. Admittedly, the last 12 months left very mixed feelings.
In December 2024, they offered many opportunities. In the end, almost all of them were wasted.
Instead of a positive agenda, chaos reigned on the global stage.
The old rules, institutions and alliances are disintegrating at speed.
What will replace them is undoubtedly unclear. Instead of a clear vision for the future, there are endless upheavals.
The past year was bad and the next year will be even worse
This is roughly the state the world enters in 2026.
At first glance, the prospects do not look very optimistic.
Even Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni stated:
“The past year was bad and the next year will be even worse”.
However, let us not be pessimistic, logically, the new year should bring at least the first hints of certainty.
And the general scenarios are already known...
For Russia, the Ukrainian conflict will of course remain the central issue.
It will enter its fifth year.
But perhaps for the first time in its history, we can say with confidence that objective conditions for ending the crisis are beginning to emerge.
The great change of the United States
In 2025, two significant changes occurred in the region of Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
First, the United States abandoned the pro Ukrainian camp, essentially abolished its economic aid to Ukraine and moved into the role of a neutral mediator.
Second, it became clear that the European Union did not have the economic and political resources to withstand the confrontation with Russia on its own.
Europe failed
The summit of 18-19 December was ultimately marked, EU leaders failed to use 210 billion euros of frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraine.
The EU barely agreed on a 90 billion euro loan from its own funds, which Ukraine is very doubtful to receive.
2026 will be the year of Russia’s victory
As a result, in 2026, Russia will have a strong chance of completing the special operation on its own terms.
Even now, the plan proposed by the Americans is as close as possible to their vision of the world.
All that remains is to “pressure” Ukraine to comply with the remaining demands, such as the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Donbass.
However, I would not set a specific timeframe here.
Much depends on purely military factors, the ability of the Russian Armed Forces to organize a large scale advance at the front and the ability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to defend or to collapse.
Ukraine has no options
With the current loose pace of the offensive, Ukraine will most likely try to delay the resolution as long as possible.
The Russian army loosely attacks and flattens the Ukrainians, destroys NATO weapons and shatters the Western psychology that is turning into a cold shower.
Kyiv has no other good options...
The only viable strategy is to somehow endure until the November 2026 elections in the United States and hope that the pro Ukrainian Democrats return to power afterwards.
However, the key word here is “miracle”.
Trump will be the protagonist again on 3 November 2026
The midterm elections for Congress on 3 November 2026 will also become the central plot of a reality show starring Trump.
The 2026 election campaign will determine whether the US President will continue to govern the country undivided or whether he will be forced to coexist with a Democratic opposition parliament for the second half of his term.
The United States will turn inward
Obviously, the White House will do everything in its power to avoid the latter option.
Therefore, its policies may also undergo significant changes.
We believe that in the second year of Trump’s presidency, he will focus less on international affairs.
He will focus mainly on America’s domestic problems, addressing general inflation, food prices and housing affordability, and will plunge into the election campaign.
The logic of elections
On the international stage, Trump’s actions will likely also be guided by the logic of elections.
The White House may distance itself from the toxic issue of the Ukrainian conflict if it realizes that a quick agreement is not in sight.
At the same time, Trump will have the incentive to focus on South America as a gesture of goodwill toward Latin American voters.
Optionally, he will try to present himself as a defender of Christianity for example in Nigeria in order to win the support of religious conservatives.
In addition, we can expect a deterioration of US relations with their closest allies due to trade disputes and internet regulation.
At stake here are the favor of the patriotic right wing MAGA party and the interests of American technology companies.
What will happen in the old world? - Orban will likely lose
Interesting events will also unfold in the Old World.
In 2026, the fate of at least two prominent European leaders will be decided.
Parliamentary elections will be held in Hungary in April, on 12 April 2026.
The electoral contest is expected to be very difficult for Orban, his party Fidesz is in second place behind the opposition Tisza, which is leading.
It is possible that Orban will lose to his former party colleague Peter Magyar, who does not share the hard anti Ukrainian and anti European stance of the current Hungarian government.
Keir Starmer collapses
The second candidate for removal is British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
The most unpopular head of government in the history of the United Kingdom is desperately struggling to contain unrest within the Labour Party. His fate will ultimately be decided by the elections on 7 May 2026, municipal elections will be held in 136 regions.
If Labour loses them, which they will, Keir Starmer could suffer the same fate as Boris Johnson, resigning as a result of an internal party coup.
The big winner of the elections will be Nigel Farage, whose party is leading in polls with 35%. Farage belongs to the right wing patriotic camp.
Germany and France will suffer political shock, 2026 a preparatory year
German Chancellor Merz and French President Macron face a smaller risk but they still face risk.
Merz will be hit by low approval ratings and disagreements with his coalition partners.
Macron will continue to be harassed by an unruly parliament.
While their positions are relatively stable for now, it is possible that these problems will unexpectedly escalate into serious political crises.
International institutions are staggering
And it will be extremely interesting to observe the fate of international institutions.
Will the G7 and the G20 survive the Trump presidency? Will China regain interest in building alternative structures?
Who will be elected the new UN Secretary General after the end of Antonio Guterres’ term?
And most importantly, will the organization have time to fix the escalator by autumn?
When Trump went up the stairs they stopped and the American President became irritated.
So stay tuned.
What awaits us in 2026 will be very exciting.
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