The war in Ukraine continues to be one of the most critical issues on the international political stage, with the war causing losses and upheaval not only in Kyiv but also across Europe and the global economy.
Within this tense climate, the United States have assumed a decisive role in exerting pressure for a peace agreement, which according to the latest reports requires Ukraine to make significant territorial concessions.
The United States violate the Russian red line with the referendum in Ukraine
According to a report by Axios, Washington is exerting intense pressure on Ukraine to accept the peace plan proposed by the United States, which includes territorial concessions.
This proposal has provoked strong reactions in Kyiv, as the territorial concessions demanded from Ukraine remain a major and thorny issue.
American officials believe that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky can find a way to proceed with the peace agreement by proposing the possibility of holding referendums in the regions disputed by the West and Kyiv.
This is considered by the American side as progress, as it would provide a certain degree of legal cover for territorial concessions, while leaving the final outcome to a democratic process.
Nevertheless, Russia has already rejected the idea of a referendum, warning that for such a process to take place, there must first be a ceasefire along the front line, something that includes the maintenance of Ukrainian troops in the territories of Donbass.
This constitutes one of the main “red lines” for Moscow, which considers the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the region non negotiable.
On 11 December, Zelensky made known his decision to submit the territorial issue to the Ukrainian people through a referendum, as part of efforts for a peaceful resolution.
Zelensky officially confirmed the American demand for the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donbass and the creation of a demilitarized zone in the area.
During a meeting with journalists, he stated that the American proposal provides for the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbass on the condition that Russian forces do not proceed with the occupation of this region.
However, it is not clear who will have control of this area, which is considered by the United States a “demilitarized zone” and a “free economic zone”.
European reactions and support for the idea of a referendum
European reactions, according to the information, are quite cautious.
Some European leaders, as reported, advise Zelensky not to rush to accept an agreement that includes territorial concessions.
Europeans do not view favorably the imposition of any peace plan that would result in significant territorial losses for Ukraine, something that could undermine the legitimacy of Zelensky’s regime within his country, as well as international support.
Nevertheless, the United States believe that the proposal for a referendum could be a way out, which would allow Ukraine to remain committed to its territorial integrity while at the same time creating a legal precedent for the implementation of the peace agreement without being “accused” of having yielded to external pressure.
This scenario also finds support from several European countries, which view the referendum as a way to “secure” the voluntary consent of the Ukrainian people, something that would lend greater legitimacy to any agreement reached.
“End of story, Donbass is Russian”
Russia’s reaction to the Ukrainian president’s proposal for a referendum on territorial issues was immediate and categorical.
The assistant to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Yuri Ushakov, stated that Moscow sees no value in Kyiv’s proposals for a referendum, as it considers Donbass Russian territory.
“All of Donbass is Russian. Period,” he stated characteristically.
The Russian side has repeatedly declared that this region will come fully under Russian control either through negotiations or through military operations.
It is clear that Russia will not accept any form of negotiation or compromise regarding the region, as it has already annexed Donbass, along with Crimea, since 2014.
Therefore, any agreement that would allow Ukraine to regain territory is unlikely.
Moscow rejects any pretexts for a request for a ceasefire or a pause on the battlefield, stated Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, commenting on Volodymyr Zelensky’s proposal to hold a referendum on territorial issues in Ukraine.
“If this is about creating a pretext for a request for a ceasefire, a pause, a cessation of hostilities at the front, then this will not pass, of course,” the Kremlin spokesperson stated in a comment to Channel One.
Zelensky sends the ball into the stands - Russia: We will speak on the battlefield, not at the ballot boxes
Analysts and political scientists believe that Zelensky’s proposals for a referendum constitute a tactic to delay the negotiation process.
Konstantin Zatulin, an associate of the Russian president and director of the Institute of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), argues that Zelensky is trying to avoid responsibility for any decision regarding the future of Donbass by shifting the burden onto citizens through a referendum.
According to Zatulin, Zelensky uses this tactic to evade responsibility, since in every scenario, whether he concedes or insists, he will appear defeated.
For his part, Russian political scientist and analyst Sergei Markelov points out that the proposals for a referendum are a “verbal trick”, which essentially will not lead to any real change.
According to him, the referendum is an offer of delay and a political tactic that serves the interests of Kyiv, without providing substantial progress in resolving the conflict.
Instead of a referendum, Markelov believes that Russia will proceed with the complete occupation of the territories it considers of strategic importance, either through an agreement or through military action.
United States - Zelensky confrontation
The recent statement by Trump against Zelensky, in which he accused the Ukrainian president of refusing to accept the peace agreement, demonstrates the intense pressure that Kyiv is facing from the American side.
Trump, despite the criticism he has received in the past for his handling of the issue, appears to be reinforcing the White House approach, which considers Zelensky’s refusal to move forward with an agreement as the greatest obstacle to achieving peace in the region.
This pressure is indicative of the differences that exist between the American and Ukrainian sides, with Washington seeking the rapid conclusion of the conflict and the restoration of stability in Europe, while Ukraine seeks to preserve its territorial integrity at all costs.
Strategic contradictions
The United States proposal for a peace agreement includes an impressive security package for Ukraine, which would be based on Article 5 of NATO, offering Ukraine guarantees that would have legal force through Congress.
The prospect of these guarantees could constitute a shield for Ukraine, offering strong strategic guarantees from the West.
However, the major concern remains what the price will be for Ukraine, as the preservation of its territories and full independence from Russia remain doubtful within the framework of the peace agreement.
On the other hand, ongoing negotiations for the economic reconstruction of Ukraine after the war are moving forward with the support of the international community, with the aim of safeguarding the country’s territorial integrity and creating a strong economy after the conflict.
The situation in Ukraine remains extremely complex and charged with strategic contradictions, as the war enters a new phase, with the international community attempting to find a viable diplomatic solution.
Pressure from the United States and the stance of European leaders underscore the strategic tensions surrounding territorial concessions and the security of Ukraine.
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