A quiet day in Europe may no longer exist in 2025. A word that no one wants to hear dominates the corridors of European capitals: War. Not a conventional war, but a game of strategy and nuclear deterrence, where every wrong measure, every delay, and every strategic gap can have catastrophic consequences. As historian Barbara W. Tuchman said about World War I: "No one wanted war. War was inevitable." Is Europe of 2025 falling into the same trap again? In the event of a nuclear strike on Europe, Washington would face the fundamental question: Will it risk nuclear war on American soil to protect London or Paris?
The countdown has begun
Recent statements by European leaders and analysts describe an environment where military preparations are becoming an everyday reality. The Hungarian Prime Minister stressed that the European Union is already in a stage of "war economy" with compulsory service and military exercises that include simulations of nuclear strikes. The dates invoked by the leaderships differ: Berlin speaks of 2026 as the last peaceful summer, while London, Paris, and Warsaw see risk windows further out, in 2028–2029. NATO, for its part, refers to Russia as the "main enemy", with military exercises reaching deep within Russian territory.
Europe and the US "security umbrella"
The uncertainty is intensified by Washington's new strategies. Analysts in Europe point out that the new US National Security Strategy describes Europe as a "region with declining momentum", while the US focuses on the Pacific and China. The "umbrella" of American deterrence no longer guarantees that it will cover a strike against European states, resulting in European capitals feeling they must move independently. And now the US is laying its cards on the table.
A clear "no" from the US
The new national security strategy is the most chilling document for Brussels. Europe is called a "fading civilization", being destroyed by migration, the destruction of the Old World culture, and demographics. Washington is ready to sell the "umbrella", but it has no intention of saving the EU from a nuclear fire.
The "one-warhead tactic" scenario
In several strategic studies, the possibility of a limited use of tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) as a "signal" or a measure of deterrence is analyzed. The data is worrying: Russia possesses approximately 5,900 nuclear warheads. Europe without the direct involvement of the US has only 515, mostly strategic, not tactical, which limits the flexibility of response. Russia's depth and industrial infrastructure allow for survival even after a nuclear strike, while Europe is geographically limited and vulnerable. In such a scenario, a Russian tactical strike on a port or strategic hub would lead London and Paris to extreme dilemmas: either retaliation with strategic weapons, risking destruction, or no response, with a potential collapse of deterrence.
The double dilemma of the US
In the event of a nuclear strike on Europe, Washington would see before it the fundamental question:
Should it risk thousands of American lives to protect European cities? What is the cost of failure on the global strategic chessboard? Experts point out that Article 5 of NATO, despite interpretations, is a right to provide assistance, not an automatic obligation to self-destruct. The strategic analyses currently circulating in Europe are not prophecies but risk assessment tools. They underline the gaps in deterrence, the strategic dilemmas, and the mistakes that can lead to uncontrolled escalation.
As history has shown, "inevitable conflict" is not the result of simple will but a function of decisions, misunderstandings, and a sequence of strategic choices. The next decisions will determine whether Europe will continue to live under threat or develop deterrence mechanisms based on strategic intelligence and not panic.
Necessary clarifications
Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD): a doctrine that prevents nuclear war through the guaranteed destruction of both sides.
Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNW): lower-yield nuclear means for the battlefield, in contrast to long-range strategic weapons.
A-235 system (Nudol): Russian anti-missile and anti-space defense system that protects Moscow and critical industrial areas.
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